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Call sheet · Q1'26

Equinix (EQIX)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 29, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 2 medium, 5 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing: power constraints are becoming the real limiter, not AI demand. While management celebrates record 'total sales activity,' actual bookings fell from $474M to $378M sequentially - they're playing metric games to hide deceleration. The binding constraint is increasingly power availability, with Fox-Martin stating they're 'putting space on hold around high-density deployments' to protect other customers' SLAs. Most revealing quote: 'The availability of power would be the largest constraint in our environment' - this isn't a demand story anymore, it's a supply story. My view changes if they start quantifying exactly how much capacity is power-constrained and provide a clear roadmap for solving it beyond the Nordic acquisition.

The 30-second version

  • Power is becoming the real constraint, not AI demand
  • Record $518M total sales activity masks bookings deceleration
  • Hampton ExScale deal economics mysteriously expanded without explanation

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Recurring Revenue (normalized CCY)$2.1B (+8% YoY)$2.3B (+10% YoY)+200bps acceleration to double-digit
Total Revenue (normalized CCY)$2.4B (+7% YoY)$2.4B (+8% YoY)+100bps but still single-digit
Adjusted EBITDA$1.2B (49% margin)$1.2B (51% margin)+190bps QoQ, +300bps YoY margin expansion
AFFO$877M$1.0B+ (first time)Broke $1B barrier, +11% YoY
AFFO per Share$9.81$10.79+10% YoY despite share count growth
Annualized Growth Bookings$474M (+42% YoY)$378M (+9% YoY)Massive deceleration from +42% to +9%
Total Sales Activity$644M$518M+35% YoY but -20% sequentially
Pre-sales Activity$170M$140M-18% sequential decline
MRR per Cabinet$2,367$2,524+7% YoY, densification strategy paying off
Net Cabinets Billing4,3004,100-200 cabinets sequential decline

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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