Deckers Brands (DECK)

The sleeper story is HOKA's US DTC stalling despite peak brand awareness - when your core customers shift to wholesale discovery instead of direct purchase, that's demand saturation, not strategic choice. The tariff hit is real but manageable; the bigger issue is whether HOKA can raise prices without killing the growth engine. Management's shift from specific targets to 'framework' language is the tell. Quote of the quarter: 'In a normalized environment, we would see mid-teen growth' - that's code for 'the easy growth is over.' My view changes if Q1 shows HOKA DTC acceleration or if international growth can offset US maturation faster than expected.