CSX (CSX)

The sleeper story is CSX proving railroads can scale without bodies, down 6% head count while moving 6% more volume, but this productivity miracle is masking service deterioration that forced them to reverse course and start hiring. The Street sees the margin expansion and record revenue, missing that chemical volumes are explicitly pull-forward and 'could moderate' per management. The binding constraint is crew availability, not track capacity, which is why they're abandoning the productivity narrative mid-year. Most revealing quote from Cory: 'demand came in much stronger than we expected and we were tighter on crews.' My view changes if service metrics actually improve in Q3 without head count growing more than 2%.