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Call sheet · Q3'26

Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF)

Q3'26 earnings call · held October 19, 2026 · compared with the Q2'26 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
4 medium flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Adjusted EBITDA beat guidance by $37M, helped by better-than-guided unit-cost reduction. Shipments were below the stated outlook, and a $160M working-capital build limited cash inflows. The next test is cash conversion and the Q4 closings needed for the still-pending H2 asset-sale expectation.

The 30-second version

  • Cost savings helped EBITDA beat guidance despite lower-than-guided shipments
  • Working capital is the next cash-flow test
  • Asset-sale proceeds remain a Q4 execution question

What changed this quarter

MetricQ2'26Q3'26Change
Adjusted EBITDA$286M Q2$612M Q3+114% sequential
EBITDA vs. guideGuided $575MActual $612MBeat by $37M (+6.4%)
Steel shipments4.0M tons Q2; guide >4.3M for Q34.2M tons Q3Below the above-4.3M-ton guide; published volumes are rounded
Average selling price/tonGuided +$55/ton+$53/ton to $1,177Marginal miss, management calls it 'in line'
Unit cost per tonGuided -$10/ton-$17/ton actual$7 per ton more reduction than guided
Working capital$55M release in Q2; 'slight build' predicted for Q3$160M buildCash use versus the prior quarter's release
Free cash flow / cash conversionReturned to positive FCF in Q2Working-capital intensive, cash 'temporarily limited'Working-capital use limited cash inflows; compare actual cash-flow statements
Asset sale proceeds$400M expected in H2 2026, all under contractOne small sale closed; major sales contracted for Q4, with some extensionsH2 deadline remains pending
2027 contract reset bridge$500M EBITDA improvement estimate~$850M, no breakdown given+$350M estimate; request the underlying price and volume assumptions
Leverage target timingSub-2.5x 'by this time next year'Below 2.5x 'by the middle of next year'Reaffirmed/slightly pulled forward

Accountability tracked

9 new promises made3 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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