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Call sheet · Q2'26

Charter Communications (CHTR)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 24, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
7/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The market is fixated on subscriber losses, but Charter just handed us a $4B annual CapEx reduction roadmap that makes the stock a coiled FCF spring at 2x 2028 multiple. Yes, they abandoned their broadband ARPU promise and losses accelerated, but who cares when you're about to generate 50% FCF yields? The binding constraint isn't competition, it's time: they need to survive the next 18 months of subscriber pressure to reach the promised land of sub-$8B CapEx. As Winfrey admitted with unusual candor: 'The timing of all that is hard to predict, but our cash flow growth is not.' My view changes if CapEx doesn't start dropping materially in 2027 or if Cox integration costs spiral above $2B.

The 30-second version

  • The $4B CapEx cliff in 2028 is the real story, not the subscriber losses
  • Internet losses accelerated to 172k while management quietly abandoned ARPU commitments
  • Cox synergies jumped 60% to $1B but transition costs are running hot

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Internet Subscribers-120k (Q1)-172k (Q2)43% worse sequentially
Revenue-1.0% YoY-1.7% YoY70 bps deceleration
EBITDA ex-transition-1.8% YoY-3.2% YoY140 bps deceleration
Mobile Lines Added+368k+406k+10% sequential improvement
Mobile Line Count12.1M12.5M+16% YoY growth
Video Losses-60k-21k65% improvement sequentially
Free Cash Flow$1.4B$1.0B-29% sequentially
Residential Revenue-2.7% YoY-3.5% YoY80 bps deterioration
Commercial Revenue+1.0% YoY+1.5% YoY+50 bps acceleration
Net Debt/EBITDA4.15x4.18x+3 bps increase

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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