| Metric | Q3'25 | Q4'25 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core NIM | 455 bps actual Q3, guided to 447 bps for Q4 | 445 bps starting point cited for 2026 | Compression continued, landed below the Q3 guided floor |
| Historical NIM low reference | No specific historical low disclosed in Q3; core NIM was 455 bps actual that quarter | 435 bps cited as historical low, with management saying it "wouldn't surprise us" to dip below it | New downside marker introduced |
| 2026 loan growth expectation | "High single-digit year-over-year growth" target for the back half of 2025 | Repeating 2025's pace called "a stretch" | Confidence downgrade on growth sustainability |
| Q4 payoff activity | Expected continued "lumpy paydowns" | Q4 payoffs explicitly "lighter than they'd been in the first, second, and third" | Payoff pace decelerated, some pushed into Q1 |
| New loan pricing | 7.0%-7.25% average on new fundings | No specific yield given, just "pressure... pricing-wise" | Specific number disappeared from disclosure |
| Core fee income guide (forward quarter) | $7 million core fee guided for Q4 | Appears to guide ~$1 million core fee for Q1 2026, "two million total" with oil & gas | Apparent ~85% sequential collapse in guide, unconfirmed due to garbled language |
| Core expense guide (forward quarter) | $9.0-$9.5 million guided for Q4 | ~$9.1 million core expense cited for Q1 2026 | Essentially flat, delivered within range |
| Oil & gas revenue framing | "A little bit less predictable" | Called a "nothing burger," declining to ~$1 million per quarter, with management flagging they disagreed with accountants' front-loaded revenue recognition 18 months ago | Accounting judgment dispute disclosed openly |
| Deposit beta / cost of funds commentary | Deposit-side pressure described as "the flavor of the week" | "I don't know if there's really a straight answer to give you" on deposit cost direction; betas on last two cuts weaker than prior cuts | Visibility worsening, management admits it |
| Capital return / buyback posture | Capital accumulation described as "really, really strong" with no buyback discussion | Buybacks explicitly "not our objective"; capital "continue to pile up" | Confirmed capital hoarding strategy, ROE pressure acknowledged (~18% capital ratio cited) |
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