| Metric | Q4'25 | Q1'26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loan growth outlook (full year) | Tom: growth matching 2025's pace 'sounds like a stretch' | Jason: 'moderate single digit,' 'slightly slowed down' vs Q3/Q4 2025 pace | Deceleration confirmed |
| Core NIM guidance | 445bps 'a great starting point,' could dip toward historical low of 435bps on deep cuts | 440-445bps modeled range | Guide held but pinned to low end |
| Deposit cost dynamics / betas | 'The last couple of cuts didn't really flow into deposit betas as strongly as maybe the first couple' | 'I don't see a massive fluctuation or any meaningful fluctuation in deposit costs' absent a rate increase | Beta erosion from last quarter appears to be stabilizing |
| Capital ratio / capital build | Capital described as 'going to continue to pile up' | 15.96% risk-based capital ratio at quarter-end, 'probably over 16% today' | Qualitative capital-build concern now quantified |
| Asset quality characterization | 'Asset quality that is probably better than it's ever been' | 'Our credit book is as clean as it's ever been' | Same superlative framing repeated, no new detail added |
| Loan payoff dynamics | 'I think we'll have $25 million a month of payoffs this year. So to grow... we need $35... $45 million a month of new funding.' | 'In the second quarter in particular, we expect pretty sizable payoffs, and then we'll just offset that with new loan bookings throughout the rest of the year.' | Elevated payoff expectations continue into Q2 |
| Q2 non-interest expense guide | Q4 actual used as 'solid guide': roughly $9.1M core plus $1M oil/gas | $9.0M-$9.25M | Roughly flat to prior quarter's core run-rate |
| Q2 non-interest income guide | Q4 actual used as guide: roughly $1M core plus $1M oil/gas, about $2M total | $750K-$850K | Guide roughly halved vs. prior blended run-rate |
| Oil & gas wind-down timeline | 'Nothing burger'; gradual decline over 'the next three or four years' unless sold | 'Gone altogether or diminished quite a bit over the next few months' | Timeline compressed from years to months |
| NPA level / credit migration | Provisioning not increased despite growth, asset quality 'probably better than it's ever been' | Pro forma NPAs of $4-5 million (~25bps) pending Friday payoff | Still favorable but now hinges on a single credit event |
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