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Call sheet · Q1'26

BlackRock (BLK)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 14, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is international equity rotation driving premium fee capture - base fee rates up 0.2 bps sequentially as clients chase international diversification through higher-fee iShares products. Yes, $130B inflows look great, but the binding constraint is private credit appetite in wealth channels where HLEND subscriptions plunged 82% to $150M. Management's shift from growth language to defensive industry comparisons signals real pressure. Most revealing quote: 'Even with some moderation of private credit BDC flows, overall evergreen flows are pretty stable' - when BlackRock starts talking about 'stability' instead of growth, pay attention. My view changes if DOL rule gets delayed past 2026 or if insurance pipeline conversions disappoint in Q2.

The 30-second version

  • THE SLEEPER STORY: International equity rotation is quietly driving premium fee capture
  • Record $130B inflows mask concerning private credit headwinds
  • DOL rule creating massive optionality but timeline risk emerging

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Revenue$7.0B Q4 (+23% YoY)$6.7B Q1 (+27% YoY)+370 bps YoY acceleration despite sequential decline
Operating Income$2.8B Q4 (+22% YoY)$2.7B Q1 (+31% YoY)+900 bps YoY acceleration
EPS$13.16 Q4 (+10% YoY)$12.53 Q1 (+11% YoY)Slight improvement in YoY growth
Operating Margin45.0% Q4 (-50 bps YoY)44.5% Q1 (+130 bps YoY)+180 bps year-over-year swing
Organic Base Fee Growth12% Q48% Q1-400 bps deceleration from record Q4
Net Inflows$342B Q4 (record)$130B Q1-62% sequential decline, still strong
iShares Net Inflows$181B Q4$132B Q1-27% sequential but record for Q1
Technology ACV Growth31% including Preqin, 16% organic14% (mentioned as continued)Deceleration from Q4 levels
Private Markets Net Inflows$25B full year 2025$9B Q1Strong quarterly run rate
Cash Management Flows$74B Q4 inflows$6B Q1 outflows$80B sequential swing to outflows

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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