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Call sheet · Q4'25

Arista Networks (ANET)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 12, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is memory cost inflation - Ullal's 'order of magnitude exponentially higher' language signals the most serious cost pressure in years, forcing Arista's first price increases and potentially crimping margins industry-wide. The obvious AI doubling to $3.25B is real, but scale-up production pushed to 2027 delays their highest-margin opportunity while memory costs spike now. The services revenue collapse from 18.7% to 0.1% is either terrible disclosure or a major business issue - either way, it destroys near-term visibility. 'We are having to smile and take it just about at any price we can get' on memory is the most revealing quote - shows genuine supply desperation. My view changes if they can't pass through memory price increases to customers or if the services issue reflects broader accounting quality problems.

The 30-second version

  • Memory costs now 'order of magnitude exponentially higher' - forcing first Arista price increases in years
  • AI revenue doubling to $3.25B, but scale-up production pushed to 2027 despite ESUN spec finishing this year
  • Services revenue mysteriously collapsed from 18.7% to 0.1% - they blame VeloCloud 'normalization' but won't explain

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Total Revenue$2.31B (+27.5% YoY)$2.49B (+28.9% YoY)+140 bps acceleration to 28.9%
AI Revenue (annual guidance)$2.75B target for 2026$3.25B target for 2026+$500M raise (+18% increase)
Services & Subscription Revenue18.7% of revenue0.1% of revenue-1,850 bps collapse
Gross Margin65.2%63.4%-180 bps compression
Operating Margin48.6%47.5%-110 bps decline
Net Income$962M$1.05B+$88M (+9.1%) - first $1B+ quarter
International Revenue %20.2%21.2%+100 bps increase
DSO59 days70 days+11 days deterioration
Purchase Commitments$5.7B (Q2) to $7.0B (Q3)$6.8B-$200M sequential decrease despite guidance raise
Product Deferred Revenue+$625M increase+$469M increase-$156M slower deferred build

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full ANET Q4'25 report Subscribe
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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