Earnings Call Intelligence Subscribe
Home › Call Sheets › AEP › Q2'26
Call sheet · Q2'26

American Electric Power (AEP)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 30, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The market will focus on the guidance raise, but the real story is AEP just proved the Texas data center boom is real with $2B in cash, while peers struggle with phantom demand and empty LOIs. Management quote that matters: 'collected nearly $2 billion in cash or collateral for load commitments in ERCOT' in just one month. The binding constraint isn't customer demand or even generation availability, it's PJM's broken interconnection process that has Bill Fehrman openly discussing 'assessing all options,' code for potential RTO exit. My view changes if the August 7 ERCOT batch determination cuts their 45 GW by more than 30%, validating timeline concerns.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper: AEP collected $2B cash from Texas hyperscalers in just one month, proving load commitments are real while peers struggle with phantom demand
  • Obvious headline: Raised guidance by $0.10 and added 6 GW contracted load, but transmission sale comps are masking underlying strength
  • The red flag: Management stopped disclosing specific ROE targets by state and is now only giving portfolio-level metrics

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Operating EPS$1.64 (Q1 2026, +6.5% YoY)$1.36 (Q2 2026, -4.9% YoY)-17% QoQ deterioration
YTD Operating EPS$1.64 (Q1 only)$3.01 (H1 2026, +1.0% YoY)On track for guidance
Full Year Guidance$6.15-$6.45$6.25-$6.55+$0.10 midpoint raise
Contracted Load Additions63 GW total69 GW total+6 GW in one quarter
Texas Contracted Load41 GW45 GW+4 GW Texas acceleration
Capital Plan$72B (5-year)$78B (5-year)+$6B increase
Secured Turbine Capacity10 GW13 GW+3 GW turbine procurement
Regulated Earned ROE9.3% (Q1)9.2% (Q2)-10 bps deterioration
Rate Base CAGRNot disclosed11% (5-year)New disclosure
DOE Loan Guarantees$1.6B secured$5B total secured+$3.3B Texas addition

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full AEP Q2'26 report Subscribe
About Research ↗Call SheetsCredibility IndexMissed PromisesScreens13F BooksData & InstitutionalPrivacyTermsSubscribe
This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

Follow what management promises next

Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.

Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.