Yum China Holdings (YUMC)

Management Credibility Scorecard · 5 quarters tracked (Q1'25 - Q1'26)
Last updated April 29, 2026 · latest call analyzed
95%
Kept of 21 resolved
20
Kept / Exceeded
1
Missed
10
Still Pending

Grade History

QuarterDisclosure QualityFinancial Quality
Q1'25 →B+B
Q2'25 →B+B
Q3'25 →B+B-
Q4'25 →A-B+
Q1'26 →B+B

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedPromiseStatus
Q1'26✅Restaurant margin and OP margin roughly in line with prior year in Q1
OP margin expanded 20 bps vs guidance of 'roughly in line'
exceeded
Q1'26⏳Return $1.5 billion to shareholders in 2026
$316M returned in Q1, on track with $214M buybacks and $102M dividends
pending
Q1'26✅Double KPRO footprint to more than 400 locations in 2026
Raised target to 600 locations, 50% higher than original plan
exceeded
Q1'26⏳More than 1,900 net new stores for full year 2026
636 stores in Q1 puts them ahead of pace (>1/3 of full year target)
pending
Q1'26✅Thirteenth consecutive quarter of positive same-store transaction growth
Achieved with continued transaction growth across brands
delivered
Q1'26✅Fourth consecutive quarter of positive same-store sales growth (Q4 2025 call)
Technically delivered with 'slightly positive' but rounded to 0% - barely met the commitment
delivered
Q4'25✅Moderately improved margins for 2025
OP margin reached 10.9%, highest since US listing
delivered
Q4'25✅Mid-single-digit system sales growth for 2025
Achieved 4% full year growth
delivered
Q4'25✅K Coffee Cafe expansion to 1,500-1,600 locations
Reached 2,200 locations, well ahead of target
exceeded
Q4'25✅1,600 to 1,800 net new stores in 2025
Opened 1,700+ stores, within guided range
delivered
Q4'25✅12th consecutive quarter of positive same-store transaction growth
Achieved transaction growth across both brands
delivered
Q4'25✅Q4 same-store sales growth at similar levels as Q3
Delivered 3% vs 1% in Q3, significant outperformance
exceeded
Q3'25⏳Working toward 12th consecutive quarter of SSS transaction growth
Achieved 11th quarter, explicitly targeting 12th in Q4
pending
Q3'25⏳Core OP margin slightly higher second half vs prior year
Q3 showed improvement, Q4 guidance maintained but with caveats
pending
Q3'25✅Pizza Hut restaurant margin to slightly improve second half
Continued margin expansion for sixth consecutive quarter
delivered
Q3'25✅KFC restaurant margin to be stable second half YoY
Q3 restaurant margin maintained healthy levels as guided
delivered
Q3'25✅Franchise economics improvement through Project savings sharing
Adrian confirmed 'some progress' but provided no new details this quarter
delivered
Q3'25⏳Double-digit percentage net new store growth for Pizza Hut in 2025
298 net new YTD suggests on track but no explicit confirmation
pending
Q3'25✅1,500-1,700 KCOFFEE locations by end 2025
Hit 1,800 in Q3, raised target to 1,700 - ahead of schedule
exceeded
Q2'25⏳Double-digit net new store growth for Pizza Hut
Reaffirmed for 2025, timing of openings shifted to H2
pending
Q2'25✅Pizza Hut margin to improve mid to long run
Fifth consecutive quarter of YoY margin expansion
delivered
Q2'25✅Maintain or slightly improve core OP margins
OP margin up 100bps in Q2, guidance maintained for full year
delivered
Q2'25⏳1,600-1,800 net new stores in 2025
Reaffirmed guidance, expect ramp-up in H2
pending
Q2'25⏳Mid-single-digit system sales growth for full year 2025
On track with 4% Q2 growth, reaffirmed guidance
pending
Q2'25✅Target 1,500 KCOFFEE locations by end 2025
Raised target to 1,700 mid-year with 1,300 already achieved
exceeded
Q1'25✅K Coffee Cafe model to expand to 1,300 locations by end of 2025
Target raised to 1,500 locations, 200 more than original guidance
exceeded
Q1'25⏳Franchise net new store mix expected to reach 40-50% for KFC and 20-30% for Pizza Hut over next few years
Q1 showed 41% for KFC, 33% for Pizza Hut, but expect lower mix for full year
pending
Q1'25✅Pizza Hut margin to improve in mid to long run
Restaurant margin expanded 190 bps YoY, though timing shifts helped significantly
delivered
Q1'25✅We expect no material impact from tariffs as over 90% of procurement is sourced locally
Confirmed minimal direct impact, though monitoring indirect effects
delivered
Q1'25❌KFC's goal for non-rider cost is to keep them stable by offsetting wage inflation through automation/simplification
Non-rider costs increased 30 bps YoY, indicating wage inflation wasn't fully offset
missed
Q1'25⏳We expect to hold core OP margin relatively stable or even slightly improve it year over year in 2025
Q1 shows improvement but too early to judge full year - maintained guidance
pending
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Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Grades, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.