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Management credibility scorecard

Ulta Beauty (ULTA)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 27, 2026
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100%
Kept of 16 resolved
16
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
5
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · accretor

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 27, 20267/122 high, 2 medium, 1 low flags00Call sheet →
Q1'26June 2, 20269/123 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'25March 12, 20268/122 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags60Call sheet →
Q3'25December 4, 202510/122 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26PendingOpen a flagship Times Square store in late 2027
No timing update provided in Q2 call; still in planning phase.
Q1'26Exceeded$1 billion stock buyback target for fiscal 2026
Increased to $1.5 billion target after strong Q1 cash generation
Q1'26DeliveredContinue international expansion in U.K., Mexico, and Middle East
Opened stores in all three regions but Middle East now hedged with 'fluid situation'
Q1'26PendingGross margin approximately flat for the year
Q1 up 100 bps but guidance maintained - suggests moderation ahead
Q1'26DeliveredSG&A growth in line with to slightly below net sales growth
Q1 SG&A up 14.6% vs sales up 11.1% but within expected range due to Space NK
Q1'26ExceededOperating profit will increase between 6%-9% for fiscal 2026
Raised low end to 6.5%-9% after Q1 performance
Q1'26ExceededComp sales growth between 2.5% and 3.5% for fiscal 2026
Q1 delivered 5.3% comp, well above high end of range
Q1'26PendingNet sales will increase between 6% to 7% for fiscal 2026
Q1 delivered 11.1% but included Space NK benefit - on track
Q4'25Pending'Position us well for long-term value creation'
2026 guidance suggests slowing growth, jury still out
Q4'25Delivered'Share more about SG&A plans in March' from Q3 call
Provided 2026 SG&A growth guidance framework
Q4'25DeliveredGross margin roughly flat for 2025
Achieved 39.1%, up 30 bps as promised
Q4'25Delivered50-60 net new stores for 2025
Opened 63 net new stores, within guided range
Q4'25DeliveredComp sales growth between 4.4% and 4.7% for 2025
Achieved 5.4%, exceeded high end substantially
Q4'25ExceededEPS between $25.20 and $25.50 for 2025
Delivered $25.64, beat high end by $0.14
Q4'25DeliveredOperating margin between 12.3% and 12.4% for full year 2025
Achieved 12.4%, hit the high end of guidance
Q3'25ExceededContinue strong execution of key events
33,000 events in Q3 vs 30,000 in Q2, successful 21 Days of Beauty
Q3'25DeliveredExpand wellness shop to additional stores
Added 50 stores with elevated fixtures in Q3
Q3'25PendingSG&A growth of 13-14% for full year
Q3 was 23% but they maintain full-year guidance range
Q3'25DeliveredComplete Dallas DC retrofit in Q3
Successfully completed with automation and robotics
Q3'25DeliveredOpen first Middle East store later in 2025
Kuwait store opened in Q3 with Bella Hadid grand opening
Q3'25DeliveredLaunch UB Marketplace in Q3
Launched in late Q3 with 120+ brands and 3,500+ SKUs
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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