| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 16, 2026 | 9/12 | 5 medium, 3 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 17, 2026 | 6/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 16, 2026 | 11/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 21, 2026 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year 2026 expense ratio guided to 'around 28.5%' FY2026 has not ended; guidance was revised upward this quarter to 'a little below 29%', a meaningful increase versus the original target, not yet a final miss since Q4 remains outstanding. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Continue investments in technology $1.5B+ annually Alan confirmed the spend level continues but ROI discussion avoided |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Fixed income NII to grow beyond 2026 Reiterated but dependent on rate environment they don't control |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Travis digital platform enhancements with AI Deployed AI features but impact metrics conspicuously absent |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Innovation 2.0 to drive next chapter of growth Alan mentioned it once but no specific initiatives or timelines provided |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Personal Insurance to deliver profitable growth over time New business turned positive but they stopped disclosing policy counts, suggesting unit growth still negative |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Full year expense ratio around 28.5% Q2 at 29%, Dan maintains guidance but variable comp pressuring upward |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Fixed income NII growth trajectory continuing in 2026 Guided to $3.3B annual vs $3.2B in 2025 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue gaining commercial market share as we have over past five years Record $775M new business suggests continued share gains |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Personal Lines RPC to drop into single digits beginning early 2026 Home RPC moderating toward mid-single digits as predicted |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Q1 2026 share repurchases roughly $1.6B Actually executed $1.8B, 13% above guidance |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Canada sale to close January 2, 2026 with $700M to buybacks Closed on schedule, proceeds deployed as committed |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Full-year 2025 expense ratio right around 28.5% Hit exactly 28.5% as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Meaningful productivity gains from AI investments 33% reduction in claims call center staff, 4 to 2 center consolidation |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Deploy $700M from Canadian sale for buybacks Sale closed January 2, 2026, included in $1.8B Q1 plan |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Continued strong underlying underwriting performance 82.2% underlying combined ratio, 5th consecutive quarter sub-85% |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | $810M fixed income NII Q4 2025 Generated $867M after-tax |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Higher level of share repurchases next couple quarters (from Q3) $1.65B Q4 vs $628M Q3, planning $1.8B Q1 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Expense ratio around 28% for full year 2025 Came in at 28.5%, within guidance range |
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