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Management credibility scorecard

TJX Companies (TJX)

7 quarters tracked (Q2'25 to Q2'27) · latest call August 19, 2026
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100%
Kept of 30 resolved
30
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
7
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'27August 19, 20267/122 high, 2 medium, 1 low flags00Call sheet →
Q1'27May 20, 20269/122 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'26February 25, 20269/121 medium, 6 low flags50Call sheet →
Q1'26May 21, 202510/122 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'252025-02-269/121 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags60Call sheet →
Q3'25November 20, 202410/122 medium, 4 low flags40Call sheet →
Q2'25August 21, 20247/124 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'27PendingMarmax comp sales would rebound to 2‑3% YoY by Q4 (implied from Q1 confidence)
Q2 delivered only 1% comp sales, management now says improvement will start in Q3 but no hard target confirmed
Q1'27Pending146 net new stores for fiscal 27
Reaffirmed guidance, on track with Q1 openings including Spain launch
Q1'27ExceededShare buybacks $2.5-2.75B
Increased to $2.75-3.0B to buy more at favorable stock levels
Q1'27ExceededConsolidated sales $62.7-63.3B
Raised to $63.2-63.7B range after strong Q1
Q1'27ExceededFull year pretax margin 11.7-11.8%
Raised to 11.9-12.0% range driven by Q1 outperformance
Q1'27ExceededFull year comp sales growth of 2-3%
Raised full year guidance to 3-4% after Q1 6% performance
Q1'27DeliveredOpen first stores in Spain in spring
Delivered - opened first Spain store in Q1 with 'terrific customer response'
Q4'26PendingSpain entry in 2026
Refined to 'spring 2026' with 5 stores, on track
Q4'26DeliveredStrong performance across all divisions
All divisions delivered 4%+ comps
Q4'26DeliveredContinue to offset tariff pressure in Q4
Management confirmed successful mitigation
Q4'26ExceededFull year comp sales increase by 4%
Delivered 5% for full year
Q4'26ExceededQ4 pretax profit margin 11.7-11.8%
Delivered 12.2%, 40-50 bps above high end
Q4'26ExceededQ4 comp sales guidance of 2-3%
Delivered 5% comp, 200-300 bps above guidance
Q1'26DeliveredMaintain expense discipline while investing in growth
SG&A improved 10bp for full year despite wage pressures
Q1'26DeliveredInternational expansion in Spain and through partnerships
Spain timeline confirmed for 2026, partnerships progressing
Q1'26DeliveredStrong inventory position for spring selling
Inventory up 15% with management highlighting 'outstanding availability'
Q1'26ExceededHomeGoods margin improvement trajectory
10.2% margin (+70bp) exceeded expectations in tough home category
Q1'26DeliveredContinue gaining market share across all geographies
All divisions posted positive comps driven by transaction growth
Q1'26PendingNavigate China tariff environment successfully
Q2 will be the test - they're taking the hit but maintaining full year guide
Q4'25ExceededContinue seeing significant opportunity to grow store base
Raised long-term potential from ~5,800 to 7,000 stores, added Spain market
Q4'25DeliveredFlow fresh merchandise multiple times a week
Transaction-driven comps suggest inventory freshness strategy working
Q4'25DeliveredEuropean team efforts and strong results driving TJX International
Maintained 7% comp at TJX International, consistent with Q3 strength
Q4'25ExceededConfident in our plans for the fourth quarter and always will strive to beat them
Beat guidance on sales, margins, and EPS - delivered on confidence
Q4'25DeliveredOutstanding availability of goods for holiday season
Strong Q4 performance across divisions suggests merchandise flow executed well
Q4'25ExceededThe fourth quarter is off to a strong start
Q4 comp of 5% well exceeded expectations and Q3 optimism proved conservative
Q3'25ExceededSee HomeGoods as highly differentiated with significant opportunity
HomeGoods segment margin jumped 200 bps, reached 1,000 store milestone
Q3'25DeliveredWell positioned to take advantage of outstanding availability in marketplace
Gross margin up 50 bps, merchandise margin specifically improved
Q3'25ExceededConfident we will continue to be attractive shopping destination internationally
TJX International delivered 7% comp vs 1% in Q2, major acceleration
Q3'25MixedContinue to see numerous opportunities to keep growing our largest division (Marmaxx)
Marmaxx comp decelerated to 2% from 5%, though still positive
Q3'25PendingConfident we will have an exciting assortment throughout fall and holiday seasons
Holiday season still underway, but Q4 guidance suggests confidence maintained
Q3'25DeliveredThird quarter is off to a strong start
Q3 came in at high end of comp guidance with strong profitability beat
Q2'25DeliveredMaintain strong financial position for growth investment
BFL investment and Mexico JV show continued capital deployment
Q2'25ExceededConfidence in 2-3% comp guidance for full year
Delivered 4% in Q2 but only guided Q3 to 2-3%, suggesting caution
Q2'25PendingLook at ways to increase profitability over long term
Added 'not be complacent' language suggests this is harder than expected
Q2'25DeliveredContinue to emphasize value proposition through marketing
Extensive discussion of marketing across demographic segments
Q2'25DeliveredFlow fresh assortments throughout spring and summer
Inventory per store improved from -5% to -2%, suggesting successful flow-through
Q2'25DeliveredSecond quarter off to a good start
Q2 comps of 4% beat their plan, confirming the momentum
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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