| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 20, 2026 | 8/12 | 3 medium flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 21, 2026 | 6/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 21, 2026 | 10/12 | 5 medium, 1 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 27, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Second-half 2026 other expense dollars to be 'relatively consistent with the first half' Full H2 not complete (Q4 remains); Q3 other expense of $1.4B is up from Q2's $1.3B, a trend that does not yet look 'consistent' but the H1-vs-H2 total comparison can't be judged until Q4 reports. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | RSAs to remain within the 4%-4.5% long-term target range Reaffirmed this quarter ('RSAs will be higher for the full year but remain within our long-term target range of 4% to 4.5%'); Q3 RSA of 4.3% is within range but near the upper half. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Net charge-offs to be less than 5.5% for the full year Reaffirmed this quarter ('charge-offs will be less than 5.5%'); Q3 NCO of 4.79% is tracking well inside the ceiling, but full-year outcome depends on Q4. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Year-end loan receivables to grow mid-single digits Reaffirmed this quarter with identical language ('year-end loan receivables will grow by mid-single digits'); year-end result not yet known. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full-year EPS guide of $9.25-$9.50 Fiscal year not complete; guide was revised to approximately $9.50, the high end, this quarter. This is a raise/revision, not a delivered or missed outcome yet. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | NIM should 'build off of the second quarter 15.08%' through the back half Q3 margin rose 42bps sequentially to 15.50%, consistent so far; the full second-half period still includes Q4. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Operational losses: 'we think that the acceleration here should flatten out in the back half of the year' The second half is incomplete. A persistent tail and total expense growth do not establish that operational-loss acceleration failed to flatten. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | NIM to build in back half Fell 42bps sequentially, needs to reverse in Q3 |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | RSAs within 4%-4.5% range At 4.0% currently, within range |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Other expense growth in line with loan receivables OpEx up 7% vs loans up 2%, significantly worse |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Net charge-offs in line with 5.5%-6% range Now guiding below 5.5%, credit outperforming |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Mid-single-digit loan growth by year-end Only at 2% currently, needs massive H2 acceleration |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Accelerated growth in purchase volume and average active accounts Purchase volume up 8% vs 6%, but active accounts still not disclosed as growing |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $9.10-9.50 diluted EPS for 2026 Reconfirmed exact same range. No change despite better credit performance. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Other expense growth in line with loan receivables Reconfirmed guidance. Q1 at +6% vs flat receivables, so need improvement. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | RSAs to increase but remain in 4-4.5% range Reconfirmed same range. Currently at 4.31% so tracking well. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | No additional broad-based credit refinements Confirmed no incremental changes assumed in 2026 guide, though they did make some Q4 adjustments. |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Net charge-off rate in line with 5.5-6% long-term target Now guiding to 'less than 5.5%' - delivered better than promised credit performance. |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Mid-single digit ending receivables growth by year-end Confirmed same guidance but removed component breakdown. Less transparency on how they'll get there. |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Walmart program launch costs included in expense guidance Program launched successfully in September as planned |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Make further credit adjustments in Q4 2025 Did make credit aperture changes in Q4 as promised |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Efficiency ratio 33-33.5% for 2025 Q4 at 36.9% suggests full year likely above range |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Net revenue between $15.0-15.1B for 2025 Full year numbers not disclosed on call |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Loss rate between 5.6-5.7% for 2025 Full year came in at bottom of range as credit outperformed |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Flat ending receivables for full year 2025 Receivables down -1% vs flat guidance, though within reasonable range |
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