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Management credibility scorecard

Snowflake (SNOW)

8 quarters tracked (Q2'25 to Q2'27) · latest call September 2, 2026
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97%
Kept of 35 resolved
34
Kept or exceeded
1
Missed
9
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · diluter

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'27September 2, 20263/121 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags20Call sheet →
Q1'27May 27, 20268/121 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags40Call sheet →
Q4'26February 25, 20269/124 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Q3'26December 3, 20259/121 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags50Call sheet →
Q1'262025-05-219/123 medium, 3 low flags40Call sheet →
Q4'25February 26, 202511/122 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Q3'25November 20, 20247/123 medium, 4 low flags41Call sheet →
Q2'252024-08-219/122 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'27ExceededAdd 600+ net new customers in Q1 2027
Q2 added 692 net new customers, surpassing prior target
Q2'27DeliveredLaunch Cortex Code GA in February 2027
Management repeatedly highlighted GA status and adoption metrics in Q2
Q1'27PendingDrive both growth and margin expansion in FY27
Q1 shows strong start but full year execution remains
Q1'27PendingObserve to contribute ~1% to FY27 growth
On track but only one quarter in, less than 1% in Q1
Q1'27ExceededContinue expanding operating margins
12% actual vs 9% guide, 300 bps beat
Q1'27DeliveredMaintain 75% gross margins despite AI investments
Held at 75% but only through AWS contract offsets, not efficiency
Q1'27ExceededSnowflake Intelligence to scale rapidly after launch
Doubled to 5,000+ accounts in one quarter, faster than expected
Q1'27DeliveredDeliver more than 430 product capabilities in FY26
Actually delivered 430+ capabilities, 20% more than prior year
Q4'26DeliveredQ3: Broader adoption of Snowflake Intelligence as next milestone
Snowflake Intelligence doubled from 1,200 to 2,500 accounts in one quarter
Q4'26PendingQ3: Making all data in Snowflake AI consumable
Cortex Code expanding scope but still early on universal AI-ready data
Q4'26DeliveredQ3: $100M AI revenue run rate achieved one quarter early
Confirmed $100M AI ARR reached, driven by Cortex suite adoption
Q4'26DeliveredQ3: Continued focus on operational rigor and margin expansion
Operating margin reached 10.5% FY26, SBC declined to 34% of revenue
Q4'26ExceededQ3: Strong bookings quarter with accelerating RPO growth
RPO accelerated from 37% to 42% YoY, largest deal >$400M, 7 nine-figure deals vs 2 prior year
Q4'26DeliveredQ3: AI is a key driver of strength in our core business
AI accounts grew from 7,300 to 9,100, Snowflake Intelligence doubled to 2,500 accounts
Q3'26ExceededAI revenue milestone achievement
Hit $100M AI ARR one quarter earlier than anticipated
Q3'26DeliveredContinue to deliver strong revenue growth and healthy results
29% product revenue growth with margin expansion maintained
Q3'26PendingNon-GAAP adjusted free cash flow margin of 25%
Reiterated target but didn't provide Q3 actual FCF numbers
Q3'26DeliveredNon-GAAP operating margin of 9% for FY26
Reiterated 9% target despite Q4 guide-down to 7%
Q3'26DeliveredNon-GAAP product gross margin of 75% for FY26
Reiterated 75% target, Q3 came in at 75.9%
Q3'26ExceededFY26 product revenue of $4.395B representing 27% growth
Raised to $4.446B, maintaining 27% growth rate despite $51M increase
Q1'26DeliveredAI and ML technology scaling at lightning speed
5,200 weekly active accounts vs 4,000 last quarter, 30% quarterly growth
Q1'26DeliveredStrong revenue growth combined with margin expansion
26% revenue growth with 9% operating margin beats both metrics
Q1'26DeliveredContinued discipline in operational rigor and efficiency
Operating margin up 442 bps YoY, headcount growth focused on revenue-generating roles
Q1'26DeliveredProduct gross margin of approximately 75%
Q1 came in at 75.7%, slightly ahead of target
Q1'26PendingNon-GAAP operating margin expansion to 8% for FY26
Maintained target, Q1 delivered 9% showing early progress
Q1'26PendingNew product features to contribute to step-up in year-over-year growth rates in second half of FY26
Reaffirmed but with softer language - 'meaningfully contribute' vs 'step-up'
Q4'25ExceededMargins will expand through operational rigor
Beat Q4 operating margin by 300bps and full year by 100bps
Q4'25PendingStrong Q4 bookings quarter expected
RPO growth decelerated to 33% from 55% - mixed signal on bookings strength
Q4'25DeliveredWe will not be breaking out performance improvement assumptions going forward
Stopped disclosing Iceberg-specific headwinds as promised
Q4'25ExceededNew products beginning to contribute to growth
Data engineering alone now $200M+ run rate, AI adoption accelerating
Q4'25DeliveredData engineering features will more than offset storage revenue headwinds
Storage stable at 11% of revenue while data engineering hit $200M+ run rate
Q4'25DeliveredSnowpark on track to be roughly 3% of revenue
Hit exactly 3% of FY25 product revenue as promised
Q3'25Exceeded3% non-GAAP operating margin for FY25
Raised to 5% full year, delivered 6% in Q3
Q3'25Delivered75% non-GAAP product gross margin for FY25
Raised guidance to 76%, margins stabilized after GPU cost pressures
Q3'25PendingAI products to begin material revenue contribution in FY26
Walked back to 'early innings' despite 1,000+ production deployments
Q3'25ExceededNew customer acquisition to impact FY26
Now expecting Q4 impact and 'fruits of labor' flowing into 2026
Q3'25DeliveredSnowpark to represent ~3% of revenue in FY25
Reconfirmed on track, part of broader $200M+ data engineering run rate
Q3'25MissedStorage revenue headwinds expected in H2 2025 due to Iceberg
Storage remained 11% of revenue, management now claims net positive from new workloads
Q2'25ExceededNew customer acquisition and consumption quotas for Q1
Mike confirmed they exceeded both quotas in Q1 under new sales comp plan
Q2'25DeliveredGPU-related costs in both COGS and R&D
Gross margin down 90bps, some GPU deployments delayed but costs incurred
Q2'25DeliveredRevenue headwinds from performance improvements factored into guidance
Guidance includes these headwinds, roughly 625bps of potential impact
Q2'25DeliveredIceberg generally available later this year
Went GA in Q2 with 400+ customers using it
Q2'25DeliveredCortex AI generally available
Launched in Q2 with over 750 customers using capabilities
Q2'25PendingFY25 guidance includes contributions from Snowpark (about 3% of revenue or $100 million)
Reaffirmed as tracking nicely to $100M target, but no Q2 specific numbers provided
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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