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Management credibility scorecard

Occidental Petroleum (OXY)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 6, 2026
Get the next OXY call sheet
83%
Kept of 18 resolved
15
Kept or exceeded
3
Missed
7
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · diluter

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 6, 20268/124 medium, 3 low flags20Call sheet →
Q1'26May 6, 202610/121 medium, 5 low flags41Call sheet →
Q4'25February 19, 202610/126 low flags42Call sheet →
Q3'25November 11, 202510/122 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26PendingFY2026 midstream guidance midpoint raised to $1.1 billion
FY2026 not complete; guidance raised again by $300 million this quarter on top of the prior raise, a revision, not a final result.
Q2'26DeliveredRichard Jackson to succeed Vicki Holub as President and CEO effective June 1
This quarter's call confirms Richard Jackson as President and CEO; transition period has ended and was completed as stated.
Q2'26PendingNear-term cash flow priority to reduce principal debt to $10 billion
Milestone not yet reached; principal debt is $11.8B this quarter, down from $13.3B, progress but not completion.
Q2'26PendingFY2026 capital guidance range of $5.5 to $5.9 billion
FY2026 not complete; range maintained unchanged this quarter.
Q2'26PendingFull year 2026 production guidance midpoint of 1.44 million BOE/d
FY2026 not complete; guidance was raised this quarter in absolute language without a new stated midpoint, a revision upward, not a final delivery.
Q2'26DeliveredStratos: 'we are currently evaluating the repair timeline... will provide an update next quarter'
Management did provide the promised update this quarter, disclosing commissioning timing and a 2027 operations start; the update itself was delivered even though the underlying timeline slipped.
Q2'26PendingTargeting more than $1.2 billion of incremental free cash flow relative to 2025 in 2026
FY2026 not complete; management reaffirmed 'we expect to deliver more than the targeted $1.2 billion' this quarter, consistent with the original target, not yet a final delivered result.
Q1'26Delivered8% dividend increase
Quarterly dividend raised as announced in Q4 call
Q1'26ExceededMaintain production base through safe operations
Beat production guidance Q1 with record uptime metrics
Q1'26Delivered$500M additional cost savings in 2026
On track with $300M capital and $200M operating/transport savings
Q1'26MissedProduction guidance 1.45M BOE/d for 2026
Reduced to 1.44M BOE/d for Middle East disruptions and EOR optimization
Q1'26PendingSTRATOS Phase 1 online Q2 2026
Commissioning complete but operational issue delays startup, timeline TBD
Q1'26ExceededPrincipal debt target $14.3B
Reached $13.3B, $1B ahead of target through tender offers and cash flow
Q4'25MissedSTRATOS CO2 injection in Q1 2026
Pushed to Q2 2026 for both phases
Q4'25MissedPotential to reallocate up to $400M to U.S. onshore
Found efficiencies instead - actually better outcome
Q4'25DeliveredIncrease investment in GoA waterflood and Oman by $250M
Confirmed $200M increase for mid-cycle projects
Q4'25ExceededPrincipal debt target of less than $15 billion
Hit $15B, now targeting $14.3B with tender offer
Q4'25DeliveredInitial focus on $4B debt maturing next 3 years
Reduced near-term maturities from $5.5B to $450M
Q4'25DeliveredUse $6.5B of OxyChem proceeds to pay down debt
Exceeded - paid down to $15B principal, targeting $14.3B
Q3'25DeliveredProgress on Gulf of America waterflood projects
King Field and Horn Mountain projects moving forward with specific timelines
Q3'25ExceededContinue debt reduction ahead of schedule
Repaid $7.5B vs $4.5B target, now $20.8B principal debt
Q3'25DeliveredStrong second half production performance
Q3 exceeded guidance high end across all domestic assets
Q3'25ExceededSustain operating cost reductions of $150M+ in U.S. onshore
Achieved $170M domestic opex reduction plus $50M international
Q3'25ExceededReduce capital guidance by additional amounts through efficiency
Delivered another $100M reduction in Q3 for total $300M annual reduction
Q3'25PendingSTRATOS on track to start capturing CO2 this year (Q2 2025)
Now guiding CO2 circulation Q4 2025, injection Q1 2026 - slight delay but still on track
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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