| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 30, 2026 | 4/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 30, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 3 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 5, 2026 | 11/12 | 4 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: Free cash flow of $1.8-2.1B H1 at $1.5B suggests achievable but unchanged despite sales beat |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: Inventory per store growth of 5% by year-end Currently at 7% growth, actually ahead of plan |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: 225-235 net new stores 110 stores opened YTD, on track but pace declining |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: SG&A per store growth approximately 3-4% Tightened to 3.5-4% but H1 running hot at 5.1% |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: Operating margin expansion for full year Still guiding to 9 bps expansion but requires perfect H2 execution |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: Gross margin guidance of 51.5-52% Q2 at 51.4% below range; full year target requires acceleration that seems unrealistic |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Q1: Full year comparable store sales guidance of 3-5% Maintained range but Q2 deceleration makes 5% top-end increasingly unlikely |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continued private label expansion Crossed 50% penetration threshold, ahead of expectations |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Virginia DC operational by Q4 2025 Successfully opened Stafford facility as planned |
| Q1'26 | Pending | 225-235 net new stores in 2026 Opened 59 in Q1, on track with 25% of annual target |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Free cash flow of $1.8-2.1B for 2025 Delivered $1.6B, below range due to tax credit timing |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Operating margin expansion despite headwinds Operating margin flat at 19.5%, not expanded due to SG&A pressures |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Gross margin range of 51.5-52% for 2025 Achieved 51.6%, in top half of range |
| Q1'26 | Missed | SG&A per store growth of 3-4% in 2025 Came in at 4.5%, 50bps above guidance due to cost pressures |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Full-year 2025 comparable store sales of 4-5% Delivered 4.7%, at high end of range |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Full year EPS guidance of $2.90-3.00 Delivered $2.97, near midpoint of range |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Operating margin to remain within 19.2-19.7% guidance range Achieved 19.5%, exactly at midpoint of range |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Full year SG&A per store growth at top end of 3.5% guide Came in at 4.0%, 50 bps above guidance due to self-insurance costs |
| Q4'25 | Pending | 2025 new store target of 200-210 net openings 160 opened through Q3, on track for year-end target |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Stafford Virginia DC to begin servicing stores in Q4 Successfully opened and operational in Q4 2025 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Expected to see similar quarterly gross margin progression from Q3 to Q4 as 2024 Gross margin declined 10 bps Q3 to Q4, similar to prior year pattern |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 2025 comp sales guidance raised to 4-5% in Q3 Achieved 4.7%, at high end of revised range |
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