Nexstar Media Group (NXST)

Management Credibility Scorecard · 5 quarters tracked (Q1'25 - Q1'26)
Last updated May 7, 2026 · latest call analyzed
89%
Kept of 19 resolved
17
Kept / Exceeded
2
Missed
11
Still Pending

Grade History

QuarterDisclosure QualityFinancial Quality
Q1'25 →B+B
Q2'25 →B+B
Q3'25 →BB-
Q4'25 →B+B
Q1'26 →B+B

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedPromiseStatus
Q1'26⏳Distribution revenue growth low single digits gross, mid single digits net
Maintained guidance despite subscriber pressures
pending
Q1'26⏳Additional operating expense savings in 2026
Reaffirmed focus on efficiency and centralization
pending
Q1'26✅Low double-digit share of broadcast political advertising
Q1 performance up 89% vs 2022 suggests strong positioning
delivered
Q1'26⏳Digital revenue to surpass national advertising revenue in 2026
Reaffirmed as important milestone for long-term trajectory
pending
Q1'26⏳The CW profitability by Q4 2026
Reaffirmed with 30%+ loss improvement expected in 2026
pending
Q1'26⏳TEGNA transaction close by end of Q2 2026
Still on track despite legal challenges, regulatory approvals obtained
pending
Q4'25✅Q4 cash taxes expected in $45M range
Actual Q4 cash taxes at $33M, better than expected
delivered
Q4'25✅Q4 interest expense expected in $88M range
Came in at $89M cash basis, essentially in line with guidance
delivered
Q4'25❌Nonpolitical advertising expected to decline low single digits in Q4
Actually grew 4.5% in Q4, second consecutive quarter of beating lowered expectations
missed
Q4'25✅TEGNA transaction closing expectations for second half of 2026
Upgraded timeline to 'by end of second quarter 2026' with regulatory momentum
exceeded
Q4'25✅Distribution revenue guidance for 2025 to be flat
Roughly flat for the year after adjusting for one-time dispute resolution
delivered
Q4'25✅CW losses to be lower than 2024 by about 25% in 2025
Delivered 32% loss reduction, beating the 25% target by meaningful margin
exceeded
Q3'25✅Conservative capital allocation pending regulatory clarity
No share repurchases, conserving cash for TEGNA acquisition
delivered
Q3'25✅Strong expense management and operational discipline
Direct operating expenses down $23M or 3% YoY
delivered
Q3'25✅NewsNation continuing growth momentum
#1 basic cable network for YoY growth maintained through Q3
delivered
Q3'25✅Nonpolitical advertising expected low single-digit decline in Q3
Delivered essentially flat, better than forecasted decline
exceeded
Q3'25❌Distribution revenue guidance of flat for full year
Down 1.4% in Q3, would need dispute settlement impact to meet guidance
missed
Q3'25⏳CW losses to be lower than 2024 by about 25%
On track with Q3 showing 24% improvement, but need Q4 execution
pending
Q2'25⏳CW path to breakeven/profitability in 2026
Maintained timeline, losses improving as planned
pending
Q2'25✅Bring political advertising sales completely in-house
National political sales division created and fully operational
delivered
Q2'25✅Non-political advertising down low-mid single digits Q1
Q1 was -4.2%, better than low-mid single digit decline
exceeded
Q2'25✅Digital advertising consistent growth overall
Mid-single digit growth continuing, higher in local business
delivered
Q2'25✅Distribution revenue relatively flat for the year
Q1 +0.1%, Q2 flat - tracking as guided
delivered
Q2'25⏳CW improved profitability about 25% in 2025 over 2024
On track - Q2 showed $21M YoY improvement, maintaining full-year guidance
pending
Q1'25✅Continue share repurchases as largest component of capital allocation
$75M in Q1, maintaining aggressive pace
delivered
Q1'25⏳Non-political advertising to be slightly up in 2025
Q1 down 4.2%, Q2 forecast down mid-single digits - looks tough
pending
Q1'25⏳CW profitability during 2026
Unchanged from Q4 but Q1 losses increased 'more than $10M'
pending
Q1'25⏳2025 EBITDA guidance $1.5-1.595B
Q1 suggests low end of range more likely
pending
Q1'25✅Distribution revenue to be relatively flat in 2025
Q1 up only 0.1%, tracking to guidance
delivered
Q1'25✅CW to improve cash flow by more than $100M in 2024
Delivered $127M improvement, 27% better than promised
exceeded
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Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Grades, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.