B+
Overall grade
B
Financial quality
The sleeper story is digital revenue surpassing national TV advertising in 2026-this isn't growth, it's a margin-eroding mix shift as broadcast fights structural decline. Management delivered on CW loss reduction and beat nonpolitical ad expectations, but Perry's confidence on TEGNA Q2 closing feels forced given DOJ silence after 'reams of information' with 'no definitive feedback.' The binding constraint is regulatory approval timing, not operational execution. Perry declared: 'This is a defining moment for our company, our industry, our shareholders and the communities we serve'-classic CEO speak when a deal defines their legacy. My view changes if DOJ provides any concrete feedback or timeline, or if CW loss reduction stalls as easy cost cuts get exhausted.
The 30-second version
- Digital surpassing national advertising is a margin structure shift masquerading as a milestone
- TEGNA regulatory approval timeline compressed under Trump/Carr, but DOJ silence is deafening
- CW profitability by Q4 2026 timeline just got murkier with expense 'optimization' doing the heavy lifting
What changed this quarter
| Metric | Prior | This quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Net Revenue | $1.2B in Q3 (-12.3% YoY) | $1.29B in Q4 (-13.4% YoY) |
| Political Advertising | $10M in Q3 (Virginia elections) | $21M in Q4 (Virginia general + CA redistricting) |
| Nonpolitical Advertising | Flat in Q3 vs expectation of low single-digit decline | +4.5% in Q4 vs expectation of low single-digit decline |
| Distribution Revenue | $709M in Q3 (-1.4% YoY) | $720M in Q4 (+0.8% YoY) |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $358M in Q3 (29.9% margin) | $433M in Q4 (33.6% margin) |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow | $166M in Q3 | $214M in Q4 |
| Cash Operating Taxes | $33M in Q3 | $33M in Q4 (vs $67M prior year) |
| Interest Expense (Cash) | $93M in Q3 | $89M in Q4 |
Accountability tracked
7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises graded
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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