| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | July 28, 2026 | 7/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 3 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 28, 2026 | 11/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 27, 2026 | 11/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | $2.5B CapEx for 2026 $1.2B through H1, on track for full year target |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | 40% minimum capital return to shareholders 41% in Q2, on track for full year |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Lexington Micro Mill EBITDA positive Q1 Achieved EBITDA positive in March per management |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Towers and Structures Alabama EBITDA positive by summer Pushed to 'later this year' from summer target |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Berkeley Galve line operational Q3 2026 On track for fall 2026 production per management |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | 5-10% shipment growth in 2026 Tracking to high end of range, likely 9-10% based on Q2 run rate |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | West Virginia commissioning pickle line Q2, cold mill later Pickle line ran first coil in June as promised |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Several projects to be EBITDA positive within 2026 (Q4 call) Four major projects achieved EBITDA positive already in March 2026 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Meaningfully higher free cash flow in 2026 (Q4 call) Q1 showed meaningful free cash flow increase as capex moderated and cash ops improved |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Sheet business contributing the most to Q1 sequential increase (Q4 call) Sheet pricing lag effect played through as expected with sheet being largest driver |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Steel mills shipment volumes should increase in Q1 supported by healthy demand (Q4 call) Achieved record 7 million tons, highest quarterly shipments in company history |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Higher consolidated earnings in Q1 with improved results across all 3 segments (from Q4 call) Beat midpoint guidance by $0.50 with strong performance across all segments |
| Q1'26 | Pending | CapEx estimate for 2026 of approximately $2.5 billion (from Q4 2025 call) Q1 spend of $661M is on track for full-year target |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | 40% minimum shareholder return Returned 70% of net earnings in 2025, well above minimum commitment |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Brandenburg EBITDA positive trajectory Achieved EBITDA positive in both Q2 and Q3, setting records in Q4 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | CapEx step-down for 2026 Guided to $2.5B vs $3.4B in 2025, $900M reduction as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Four major projects completion in 2025 Completed Lexington, Kingman, Alabama towers, Crawfordsville galvanizing as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | West Virginia startup by end of 2026 On schedule, 75% complete, language became more confident about timeline |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Bar group projects EBITDA positive by Q1 2026 Reaffirmed for both Lexington and Kingman, with startup costs coming in lower than expected |
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