| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 20, 2026 | 9/12 | 3 medium flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 21, 2026 | 9/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 21, 2026 | 11/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 27, 2026 | 11/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | PAC-3 SRM production awards expected 'later this year' Not addressed on this call; no confirmation the award was received. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Air Force decision on accelerating B-21 into a larger program of record expected 'by year end' Year end 2026 has not yet occurred as of the Q3 call; no update on this decision was given this quarter. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | MRV first launch 'scheduled to launch later today weather permitting' Launch date has passed since the Q2 call, but the Q3 transcript contains no mention of MRV at all; actual outcome not stated on this call. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | 2026 CapEx of $1.85 billion Pending full-year completion. Issuer nine-month capital expenditures were $775M; Q3 alone was $306M. Keep cumulative and quarterly periods separate. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY2026 MTM-adjusted EPS guidance of $28.60-$29.10 Year not complete; Q3 raised guidance by an additional $0.70 on top of the prior $1.20 raise, a positive revision, not yet a final delivered result. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | FY2026 sales guidance of $43.75-44.25 billion Full year not yet complete; Q3 reaffirmed the identical range. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Full year book-to-bill ratio of at least 1.25x Period (FY2026) not yet ended; Q3 call raised the guide to 'at least 1.3', a revision upward rather than a delivery. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Free cash flow of $3.1-3.5B for 2026 Reaffirmed despite higher CapEx |
| Q2'26 | Pending | First flight of Sentinel in 2027 Maintained commitment |
| Q2'26 | Pending | B-21 to arrive at Ellsworth Air Force Base in 2027 Maintained timeline |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Expect to reach Milestone B decision later this year on Sentinel Reiterated for later in 2026 |
| Q2'26 | Missed | Margins expected to improve over the course of the year Segment margins compressed to 9.7% from 10.8% in Q1 |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | High single-digit sequential sales growth in Q2 Delivered 10% sequential growth from Q1 to Q2 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Free cash flow guidance of $3.1-3.5B maintained Reaffirmed despite higher CapEx, working to offset impacts |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Mid-single-digit growth for 2026 Q1 organic growth of 5% consistent with full-year expectations |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Strong book-to-bill over one this year internationally Too early to assess but pipeline remains strong |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | International growth continuation in 2026 Seeing strong momentum though with new caveat about delivery timeline sensitivity |
| Q1'26 | Pending | We expect to reach the Milestone B decision later this year for Sentinel Still on track with Milestone B expected later in 2026 |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | We are optimistic that we will come to an agreement with the air force this quarter on B-21 acceleration Successfully finalized 25% production rate increase agreement as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | International sales growing 20% in 2025 Achieved exactly 20% international growth for full year |
| Q4'25 | Pending | IBCS significant double-digit growth driver in 2026 Still expected but no specific growth rate provided |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Space segment poised to return to growth Space achieved 5% growth in Q4 after 18 months of declines |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Free cash flow $3.1-3.5B for 2026 Reaffirmed range despite higher CapEx |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Segment OM rate in low to mid 11% range for 2026 Maintained guidance range despite lower sales expectations |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Mid-single digit organic sales growth in 2026 Guidance of $43.5-44B represents mid-single digit growth |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | LRIP Lot 3 and Lot 5 advanced procurement awards later this year Both awards received in Q4 as promised |
Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.
Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.