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Management credibility scorecard

KLA (KLAC)

5 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q4'26) · latest call July 28, 2026
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92%
Kept of 24 resolved
22
Kept or exceeded
2
Missed
7
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q4'26July 28, 20269/121 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags40Call sheet →
Q3'26April 29, 20269/122 medium, 4 low flags31Call sheet →
Q2'26January 29, 20269/123 medium, 4 low flags51Call sheet →
Q1'262025-10-2910/121 medium, 5 low flags50Call sheet →
Q4'25July 31, 202512/126 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q4'26ExceededOperating margin leverage of 40-50% incremental
Achieved 59% incremental margin this quarter
Q4'26DeliveredQuarter-to-quarter revenue growth throughout 2026
Q4 up 7% sequentially, September guided up another 9%
Q4'26PendingSemi-PC business to grow over 20% in 2026
Tracking to plan based on H2 acceleration guidance
Q4'26DeliveredService business long-term growth of 13% to 15%
Growing 17% YoY, exceeding target range
Q4'26PendingGross margins of approximately 62% plus or minus 50 basis points in calendar 26
Currently at 62.4%, within range but memory headwinds worsening
Q4'26ExceededAdvanced packaging revenue of approximately $1 billion in 2026
Now guiding to $1.1 billion, 10% above prior guide
Q3'26PendingChina revenue mid-20s to high-20s range for 2026
Stopped providing specific percentages, called impact 'immaterial'
Q3'26MissedDRAM cost headwind to improve as we exit calendar year
Now expect headwind to persist through at least 2026
Q3'26PendingGross margins approximately 62% plus/minus 50bp in 2026
Maintained guidance despite DRAM cost pressure worsening
Q3'26ExceededAdvanced packaging growth in mid to high teens
Revised to high-50s% range, massive upward revision
Q3'26Exceeded2026 revenue will grow mid-single digits with accelerating second half growth
Now guiding high-teens growth vs mid-single digits
Q3'26ExceededWFE market to grow high single to low double digits, reaching low $120B range
Delivered $140B+ guidance, $20B above prior target
Q2'26MissedAdvanced packaging market to grow more than 20% in 2026
Quietly walked back to 'mid to high teens' growth expectation
Q2'26DeliveredGross margins around 62% plus or minus 1 percentage point
Hit 62.6% in December quarter, within guidance range
Q2'26ExceededService revenue growth of 12-14% for 2025
Service growing 16-18% YoY, above target range
Q2'26DeliveredChina to be 30% plus or minus range for full year
China trending to ~30% for full year as guided
Q2'26DeliveredMid to high single-digit WFE growth in 2025
Market came in as expected, KLA outperformed with 17% growth
Q2'26ExceededAdvanced packaging revenue to exceed $925M for 2025
Delivered $950M, beating guidance by ~3%
Q1'26DeliveredService business 12-14% growth range
Q1 at 16% YoY, tracking above target range
Q1'26PendingCalendar 2025 gross margins around 62.5%
December guidance at 62% suggests Q4 uptick needed to hit full-year target
Q1'26DeliveredGeneral revenue stability for remainder of calendar 2025
December guidance consistent with flat to modest growth expectation
Q1'26DeliveredMeaningfully outperform mid-single-digit WFE growth in 2025
On track with higher intensity and share gains offsetting China headwinds
Q1'26DeliveredChina business to drop to 30% level in 2025
Tracking to ~30% for full year, though now guiding mid-20s for 2026
Q1'26ExceededAdvanced packaging revenue to exceed $850M in 2025
Raised to $925M, third or fourth upward revision this year
Q4'25PendingMeaningful outperformance of mid-single digit WFE growth
Still confident but no specific quantification provided
Q4'25DeliveredLead time normalization to 6-8 months
Now at 7-9 months, substantial improvement from 18 months
Q4'25DeliveredGross margin ~62.5% for full year 2025 including tariff impact
Reaffirmed despite tariff headwinds
Q4'25PendingWFE mid-single digit growth, KLAC outperformance by several points
Reaffirmed WFE view, confident in outperformance
Q4'25DeliveredService business growth ~10% for 2025
On track despite export control headwinds
Q4'25DeliveredChina revenue ~30% for full year 2025
Tracking to 30% as promised, Q2 was 30%
Q4'25ExceededAdvanced packaging revenue to exceed $850M in 2025
Now guiding >$925M, significant upward revision
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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