| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | August 26, 2026 | - | No flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | May 27, 2026 | 6/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | February 24, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags | 3 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | 2025-11-25 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | August 27, 2025 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Return ~100% of FCF to shareholders Q2 returned $400M on $800M FCF, only 50% but citing leverage |
| Q2'26 | Pending | $300M cost savings by end of FY26 No quantification of progress, just 'on track' language |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Print margins in long-term range 16.3% is 'solidly in range' of 16-18% as promised |
| Q2'26 | Pending | PS revenue growth for fiscal year On track with 13% growth in Q2 but pull-forward clouds sustainability |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Memory secured for fiscal '26 Have supply but eating massive price increases, Pyrrhic victory |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Free cash flow $2.8-3.0 billion Maintained but now targeting low end, Q2 at $800M is ahead of pace |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Deliver EPS in range of $2.90-$3.20 Trending to low end at $2.90-$3.10, technically on track but degrading |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Print margins in upper half of 16-19% range Now guiding to top end of range for full year |
| Q1'26 | Missed | PS operating margins to stay in 5-7% range Now expect below range for remainder of year |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | AI PC penetration to reach 40-50% in FY26 Already at 35% in Q1, ahead of schedule |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue Windows 11 refresh momentum 60% conversion achieved, though pace may be slowing |
| Q1'26 | Missed | PC revenue TAM to grow low single digit in FY26 Now saying industry projects double digit unit declines - completely reversed outlook |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Memory cost impact of roughly $0.30 EPS for FY26 New guidance this quarter, but already hedging with 'closer to low end of guidance range' |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Windows 11 refresh continuing as tailwind Conversion accelerated from 50% to 60% in quarter |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Free cash flow of $2.6-3.0 billion for fiscal 2025 Delivered $2.9 billion, within guidance range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | AIPC mix reaching 25% by end of fiscal year Achieved over 30% in Q4, a quarter ahead of schedule |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Nearly all products sold in North America built outside China Completed manufacturing transition as planned |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Future-ready cost program delivering $2 billion in savings Delivered $2.2 billion vs $2 billion target, 1.8x savings-to-charge ratio |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Personal systems operating margin back into target range Achieved 5.4% in Q3, improved to 5.8% in Q4, solidly in 5-7% range |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Free cash flow $2.6B-$3B for FY25 Maintained range despite Q2 revision |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | All US products built outside China by June Achieved on accelerated timeline |
| Q3'25 | Pending | $2B in future-ready savings by end of FY25 On track, maintaining target |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | AIPC >25% of mix by end of year Achieved one quarter early |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Fully mitigate tariff costs by Q4 Mitigated majority already in Q3, ahead of schedule |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Return PS operating margin to 5%-7% range next quarter (Q3) Hit 5.4% as promised after Q2 miss |
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