| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 19, 2026 | 8/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 17, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 17, 2026 | 11/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 20, 2026 | 11/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 7 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Second-half 2026 net charge-offs of 30-35 bps Q3 actual came in at 31 bps, within range, but the full second half (including Q4) has not concluded. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Q3 adjusted non-interest expense down 1-2% Expenses fell 2%, at the favorable end of the 1%-2% decline guide. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Q3 adjusted non-interest income up 1-3% Actual growth was 1%, the low end of guidance. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Q3 average loans up approximately 1% Average portfolio loans grew 1% sequentially to $179 billion as guided. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Q3 NII growth of 2-2.5% sequential Approximately 2.5% sequential growth, at the top of the 2%-2.5% range. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Resume regular quarterly share repurchase activity in the second half of 2026 September repurchases were delayed. The H2 deadline has not passed; management expects $200M-$300M in Q4, conditional on loan growth. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Open 55 new Southeast branches for full-year 2026 35 of 55 opened as of this call, management reiterated 'remain on track to open the full 55'; period has not ended. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Deliver $850 million annualized run-rate expense synergies Management said the $850M target was delivered; gross savings in the low $900Ms included reinvestment, so the gross number is not a comparable net overdelivery measure. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Execute systems conversion over Labor Day weekend, the last step to unlock the $850M synergies Conversion executed; management confirmed 'the conversion over Labor Day weekend was the last major step of the technical integration' and cited 600,000 accounts/293 banking centers onboarded. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | NII $8.7B-$8.8B for full year Raised guidance to $8.74B-$8.80B on better deposit costs and loan growth |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Resume buybacks in second half 2026 Confirmed for H2, targeting $200-300M quarterly in Q4 |
| Q2'26 | Pending | 55 Southeast branches in 2026 Opened 'more than one branch per week' in Q2, tracking to plan |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | $850M annualized expense synergies by Q4 Running 'good bit ahead' but reinvesting excess rather than taking to bottom line |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Labor Day weekend systems conversion On track, completed second mock conversion in June successfully |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | $500M-$750M Southwest deposits post legal day one Delivered $2.5B, more than 3x high end of range |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Second quarter Direct Express platform launch Still on track but language softened to 'advanced preparations' |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Build 150 Texas branches over time 81 locations secured vs 43 last quarter, well ahead of pace |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 37.5% of $850M synergies in 2026 Now expecting $360M vs $320M, potentially $400M |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Resume share repurchases in second half 2026 Reaffirmed timeline, amount depends on merger charges timing |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | $8.6-8.8B full year NII for 2026 Raised guidance floor to $8.7B, tightened range upward |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Systems conversion around end of Q3 Accelerated to Labor Day weekend, 6-8 weeks earlier than promised |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Close Comerica transaction February 1, 2026 Closed exactly on February 1 as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Value streams to reach $200M annualized savings Hit exactly $200M run rate as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Stable to up 1% NII in Q4 from Q3 NII up $10M sequentially, within guidance range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Commercial NPAs down 40% by year-end from Q1 Down 30% since Q1, tracking to the 40% target |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Fourth quarter net charge-offs around 40bps Hit exactly 40bps as guided |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Open 50 branches in 2025 Opened exactly 50 Southeast branches as committed |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | 150-200bps positive operating leverage for full year 2025 Delivered 230bps operating leverage, above the guided range |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Record NII regardless of rate environment Q4 2025: $6B full-year NII, 2.5% above prior record as promised |
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