| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | August 4, 2026 | 7/12 | 1 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | May 5, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | February 3, 2026 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | November 5, 2025 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | August 6, 2025 | 11/12 | 6 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Mid-teens Ovation growth for the year Orders up 41% in Q2 vs 74% Q1 - strong but decelerating from exceptional start |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Second half growth acceleration to approximately 6% Now guiding Q3 at 5%, so Q4 needs to be stronger to average 6% |
| Q2'26 | Pending | $2.2 billion capital return through dividends and buybacks $542M repurchases done, need $458M more plus $1.2B dividends |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Free cash flow growth of approximately 10% Strong Q2 cash generation puts them on track, up from 10% to 18% margin |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Adjusted segment EBITDA margin of approximately 28% At 27.6% in Q2, reaffirming 28% for year - margin expansion needed |
| Q2'26 | Pending | ACV growth of 10% plus for full year At 9% through two quarters, need acceleration to hit this - still guiding to it |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Mid-teens Ovation growth for the year Q1 orders up 74%, well ahead of mid-teens expectation |
| Q1'26 | Pending | $2.2B capital return with $1B share repurchases $250M completed in Q1, 25% of plan - on track for ratable deployment |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | $100M run-rate AspenTech synergies by end of 2026 Already at $50M realized in 2025, ahead of original timeline by 2 years |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Adjusted segment EBITDA margin of approximately 28% for FY2026 Q1 at 27.7%, need 40bps improvement excluding software impact - achievable |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Sales growth of 5.5% with 4% underlying for FY2026 Q1 underlying at 2% due to software renewals, tracking behind but guidance maintained |
| Q1'26 | Pending | ACV growth of 10% plus for FY2026 Q1 came in at 9%, below target but maintaining full-year guidance - needs acceleration |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Double-digit ACV growth for full year Software ACV grew 10% ending at $1.56B |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Full year free cash flow of approximately $3.2 billion Delivered $3.24B despite $200M acquisition headwinds |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Adjusted segment EBITDA margin of approximately 27% in Q4 Delivered 27.5% due to strong operational leverage |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Fourth quarter underlying sales growth of 5% to 6% Delivered 4% due to software renewal timing and tariff surcharge adjustments |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Underlying orders growth between 5% and 7% exiting the year Hit 6% exactly in Q4 - right in the middle of guided range |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Test & Measurement orders to approach 20% in Q4 Delivered 27% - significant beat showing recovery momentum is stronger than expected |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Double-digit ACV growth led by AspenTech Maintaining double-digit ACV growth with AspenTech digital grid up 26% |
| Q3'25 | Pending | $100M AspenTech synergies by 2028 Early progress on G&A harmonization, transaction modestly accretive in 2025 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Complete offset of tariff impacts through pricing and operational actions Fully offsetting $130M gross impact vs original $245M estimate |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Process and hybrid mid-single digit growth sustainability Consistent mid-single digit performance as promised |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Test & Measurement recovery in second half with double digits by year end 16% growth in Q3, expecting 20% in Q4 - ahead of original timeline |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Free cash flow guidance of $3.1-3.2 billion Q3 FCF margin of 21.3% well above expectations, likely hitting top end |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Adjusted EPS between $5.90 to $6.05 for 2025 Raised midpoint to approximately $6.00, now expecting top end of range |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Underlying sales growth of approximately 4% for full year 2025 On track with 3% through Q3, expecting acceleration to 5-6% in Q4 |
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