| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'27 | August 26, 2026 | 7/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'27 | 2026-06-03 | 9/12 | 2 medium, 3 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'26 | March 4, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'26 | 2025-12-02 | 8/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | June 3, 2025 | 7/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | March 4, 2025 | 11/12 | 3 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | November 26, 2024 | 8/12 | 1 high, 6 medium flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | 2024-08-28 | 7/12 | 4 medium, 3 low flags | 5 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'27 | Exceeded | Maintain strong cash generation Record Q1 FCF of $468M (34% margin) vs 30%+ full year target |
| Q1'27 | Delivered | Continue M&A integration without disrupting platform Signal and Seraphic closed in Q1 contributing $7.8M acquired ARR as expected |
| Q1'27 | Delivered | AI tailwinds to drive structural demand Record Q2 pipeline up 49% YoY, revenue acceleration for 4th consecutive quarter |
| Q1'27 | Delivered | Flex model driving platform consolidation Nearly $2B Flex ARR with 480 Reflex customers, 51% multi-Reflex uplift |
| Q1'27 | Delivered | AIDR to become significant revenue contributor 250% sequential growth with $50M+ Q2 pipeline - fastest product ramp ever |
| Q1'27 | Exceeded | Full year net new ARR growth to accelerate over FY26 Guided to 27-29% vs 25% last year - delivered with 520 bps raise |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Strong Q4 opportunity, robust demand environment (Q3 2026) Record Q4 results across metrics validated demand environment assessment |
| Q4'26 | Pending | ARR to subscription revenue separation of $13-15M in Q4 (Q3 2026) Guidance maintained but actual impact not disclosed in Q4 results |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | FY27 net new ARR growth of at least 20% (Q3 2026) Maintained guidance of 20-25% YoY growth for FY27 despite higher FY26 base |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | Second half FY26 net new ARR growth of at least 50% YoY (Q3 2026) Podbere confirmed 'well above our previously provided assumptions of at least 40%' |
| Q4'26 | Exceeded | Q4 net new ARR guidance implied low-mid teen sequential growth (Q3 2026) Q4 delivered $331M vs Q3 $265M = 25% sequential growth, well above guidance |
| Q4'26 | Delivered | Expect Flex to become our licensing standard (Q3 2026) Kurtz stated 'Flex is now how we go to market' - clear upgrade from expectation to current reality |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Impact of CCP and special partner programs to subside starting in FY '26 Program winding down with $13-15M Q4 impact vs $10-15M guided last quarter |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Free cash flow margin expanding to more than 30% for full year FY '27 Maintained this longer-term guidance |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Exit fiscal year with free cash flow margin of 27% in Q4 Maintained guidance for 27% Q4 margin |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Well exceed the $5 billion ending ARR milestone by fiscal year end On track with $4.92B current ARR and strong Q4 guidance |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | Ending ARR growth for FY '26 to be more than 22% Now at 23% YoY with Q4 still to come |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Back half net new ARR will grow at least 40% versus last year Now guiding to at least 50% growth, raised from 40% assumption |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | FalconFlex acceleration and customer adoption $3.2B total deal value vs $2.5B last quarter, 39 reflexes already occurring |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continued strong gross retention around 97% Maintained exactly at 97% for Q1 |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Operating margin expansion in back half FY2026 Reiterated and raised FY2027 target to 24%+ from strategic realignment |
| Q1'26 | Missed | CCP program concluded in Q4 Program ended but revenue impact continuing $10-15M per quarter through FY2026 |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Back to 30%+ FCF margins in FY2027 Raised target from 30% to 'more than 30%' and moved timeline earlier |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Second half net new ARR reacceleration as CCP discounts expire Management doubled down on this promise with more specific Q2 guidance this quarter |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Cloud security strong performance Over $600M ARR growing 45%+, major wins across Fortune 500 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Customer commitment packages concluding in upcoming quarters Program officially ended, faster than expected conclusion |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | NextGen SIEM hyper-growth inflection point Still growing 115%+ YoY, now over $330M ARR with 2,000+ customers |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Falcon Flex deal volume accelerating Added $1B in Q4 alone, now $2.5B total, 80% QoQ growth |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Continued strong adoption of Falcon platform modules Now have seven modules over $300M ARR each, discontinued five-module metric as baseline |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Net new ARR reacceleration starting in back-half of FY26 Reiterated with more specific Q1 seasonal guidance, still projecting H2 acceleration |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Back-half net new ARR acceleration starting in back half of next year Maintained but language slightly less definitive than Q2 |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Customer commitment packages will drive higher platform adoption Module adoption accelerated beyond expectations - 20% now have 8+ modules |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | More than $60 million in deals remained open at time of Q2 call Closed more than half as of last Friday, tracking ahead of expectations |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Operating margin improvement on an annual basis in FY26 Reiterated commitment but no specific timeline within FY26 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | We expect these headwinds to remain in varying degrees for about a year Still maintaining back-half of next year acceleration timeline |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Expect to see extended sales cycles for both new and existing customers Confirmed 15% longer sales cycles in enterprise, matches guidance |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Customer commitment packages will impact net new ARR by approximately $60 million in back half of FY25 Q3 impact was $25M, tracking to ~$55M back-half total, slightly better than guided |
| Q2'25 | Pending | $10 billion ending ARR target by end of fiscal year 2031 Reaffirmed commitment despite near-term headwinds - no change to long-term target |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Strong execution across landing, retaining and expanding with customers Dollar-based retention consistent with expectations, 98% gross retention disclosed |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Continued investment in sales capacity and R&D while maintaining financial discipline 22% headcount growth YoY while expanding operating margins, though reallocating spend post-incident |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Cloud, Identity, SIEM hyper-growth businesses each representing resilient growth vectors Collectively hit $1B ARR growing 85%+ YoY, though individual segment disclosure reduced |
| Q2'25 | Exceeded | Falcon Flex program gaining traction across customer segments Grew from $500M to $700M in deal value, becoming primary go-to-market vehicle post-incident |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Q2 pipeline building to record levels with consistent win rates Pipeline was disrupted by incident - over $60M in deals pushed to later quarters |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Net new ARR growth assumptions for Q2 'at least double-digits, up to low-teens' Achieved 11% YoY growth, within stated range despite incident impact |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Free cash flow margin target of 31% to 33% for full fiscal year 2025 Completely withdrew this guidance - delivered 28% in Q2 and now won't provide full year target |
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