| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 6, 2026 | 9/12 | 4 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 30, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 5, 2026 | 11/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | Pending | Return 45% of CFO to shareholders in 2026, consistent with long-term track record Year not complete; H1 averaged only ~40%, meaning a meaningful step-up in distributions is required in H2 to hit the full-year target. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, driven by cost reduction, LNG projects, and Willow Multi-year target not yet due; reaffirmed this quarter with added breakeven-price detail. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | $5 billion disposition program ($3B completed, $2B remaining as of Q1) Program fully completed ahead of schedule, including $1.7B of non-core asset sales in July. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | FY2026 capital spending guidance of $12.0-12.5 billion Full year not yet complete; management states 'full year guidance items are unchanged', a reaffirmation, not a completed delivery. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | $1 billion run-rate cost savings target by year end 2026 Year not yet ended; current quarter only offers the qualitative update 'cost reduction program is progressing ahead of plan' with no restated dollar run-rate figure. |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | Q2 2026 production guidance midpoint of 2.2 million boe/d (Qatar fully excluded, Surmont royalty adjustment, planned maintenance factored in) Actual Q2 production of 2,248,000 boe/d came in above the high end of guidance. |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continue growing base dividend at top quartile S&P 500 rate Maintained dividend growth trajectory |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Return about 45% of CFO to shareholders Returned $2B in Q1 maintaining commitment despite higher absolute dollar amounts |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Willow nearing 50% complete Achieved 50% milestone with gravel scope completed as planned |
| Q1'26 | Pending | NFE expected to start up in second half of 2026 Now could extend into early 2027 due to Middle East conflict construction delays |
| Q1'26 | Missed | 2026 production guidance 2,330-2,260 mboe/d Lowered midpoint to 2,310 due to Qatar conflict and Surmont royalty impacts |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | 2026 operating cost guidance of about $10.2 billion Maintained at $10.2B, showing confidence in cost reduction execution |
| Q1'26 | Missed | 2026 capital spend guidance of about $12 billion Raised to $12.0-12.5B range, 2% increase at midpoint due to Permian additions |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Make progress on $5B asset sale target $3B+ achieved vs $2.5B prior quarter, $1.5B closing Q4 |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Continue dividend growth at top quartile S&P 500 rate 8% increase delivered, fifth consecutive year of top quartile growth |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Progress major projects consistent with prior update NFE second half 2026, Willow early 2029, no timeline changes |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Return about 45% of CFO to shareholders Achieved $9B return, 45% of $20B CFO exactly on target |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Significant reduction in capital spend and operating costs $1B combined improvement delivered as promised |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Preliminary 2026 guidance of ~$12B CapEx, ~$10.2B OpEx Confirmed exactly at preliminary levels, strong execution on guidance process |
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