| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 20, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 21, 2026 | 5/12 | 4 high, 4 medium flags | 3 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 21, 2026 | 8/12 | 2 medium, 5 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 22, 2026 | 9/12 | 6 medium, 2 low flags | 2 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | The bottom of the Discover brownout will be somewhere around the fourth quarter of this year. Pending. Clarify the metric behind the earlier Q4 bottom and the current expectation of several quarters before positive loan growth; these may describe different endpoints. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | We remain on track to deliver the full $2.5 billion of announced synergies. Multi-year target not yet due; Q3 update shows $1.8B annualized combined synergies achieved YTD and 'ahead of schedule', a positive revision but not a resolution of the full target. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | But we will not be fully on Capital 1's tech stack until the first quarter of next year (Discover back book). Deadline (Q1 2027) has not yet arrived; Q3 confirms conversion is mid-process and 'we'll complete that in the first quarter,' consistent with original timeline. |
| Q3'26 | Delivered | We expect to be fully on our tech stack for new originations by the end of the third quarter. Confirmed: as of end of September, 100% of Discover Card originations are on Capital One's tech stack. |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Brex closing in early April Closed April 7 for $4.5B as expected |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Cash trending down from Q1 elevated levels Cash dropped $21B as guided |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | Marketing push into Q2 from Q1 timing shift Marketing up to $1.7B from $1.5B as promised |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Earnings power consistent with deal announcement expectations Still refusing to define baseline, impossible to verify |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Full $2.5B synergies by middle of 2027 Only 1/3 delivered so far, now saying 'second half' of 2027 |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Discover originations fully on Capital One tech by end of Q3 Currently at 50%, needs to hit 100% in 2 months |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Marketing spend acceleration Q1 was seasonally low, promised heavier spend in Q2+ quarters |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Strong credit performance continuation Delinquencies better than normal seasonality, not just stable performance |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Efficiency ratio pressure from investments in near term Q1 efficiency improved but acknowledged continued pressure from Brex and other investments |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Begin Discover card originations on Capital One platform Started at low levels, now at 8% and testing |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Maintain earnings power consistent with deal model Reaffirmed despite Brex acquisition and incremental investments |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Complete debit network conversion Conversion nearly complete per Andrew, ahead of original timeline |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Deliver expected Discover synergies on track Revenue synergies substantially complete from debit conversion, tracking to $2.5B total by mid-2027 |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Credit performance remains strong and stable Credit metrics moved as expected seasonally, no deterioration beyond normal patterns |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Strong position to pursue resilient growth in auto marketplace Auto originations growth halved from 17% to 8% YoY due to competition |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Continue to see good traction across legacy card business Legacy purchase volume growth slowed from 6.5% to 6.2% YoY - deceleration |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Remain on track to deliver $2.5 billion in combined synergies Reaffirmed but no progress update on actual synergy realization |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Marketing will likely be somewhat above recent seasonal patterns in Q4 Marketing expense up to $1.9B, 41% YoY increase - delivered on increased spending |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Revenue synergies to ramp up in Q4 and early 2026 from debit network migration Debit conversion nearly complete but revenue synergy impact not yet quantified in results |
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