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Management credibility scorecard

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

3 quarters tracked (Q4'25 to Q2'26) · latest call July 29, 2026
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91%
Kept of 11 resolved
10
Kept or exceeded
1
Missed
8
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · accretor

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26July 29, 20264/121 high, 5 medium, 3 low flags00Call sheet →
Q1'26April 29, 20269/122 medium, 4 low flags31Call sheet →
Q4'25February 3, 202610/122 medium, 4 low flags70Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26PendingExpand partner‑operated footprint in Mexico and South Korea this year
Monterrey opened; Seoul and Mexico City still in pipeline.
Q2'26PendingNew restaurant cash‑on‑cash return ~60% in year‑two
No new data; prior quarter only reiterated.
Q2'26PendingPricing impact to rise to mid‑2% in Q3
Q2 pricing impact 1.6%; Q3 forecast not yet realized.
Q2'26PendingFrictionless in‑restaurant rewards pilot to launch in August
Pilot announced, no enrollment or spend lift disclosed.
Q2'26PendingDigital on‑time percentage to improve in Q3
No baseline disclosed; cannot assess delivery.
Q2'26PendingHEAP will be installed in ~2,000 restaurants by year‑end
Current install count ~1,000; pacing at 30‑45 per week, full rollout likely into 2027.
Q1'26PendingAbout flat comp sales for full year 2026
Q1 came in at +0.5%, trending above guidance but maintaining conservative outlook
Q1'26DeliveredFour LTOs in 2026 vs historical lower cadence
On track with Chicken Al Pastor, Cilantro-lime sauce, Honey Chicken launched
Q1'26DeliveredRewards program relaunch in spring 2025
Launched with new features, seeing 25% increase in daily enrollments
Q1'26DeliveredEurope positive comps and improved economics
Achieved positive comps and 40% ROI in year 2, unlocking growth
Q1'26PendingPartner-operated openings in Middle East, Mexico, Singapore, South Korea in 2025
Middle East delivered 11 openings, others still pending for 2026 with some delays noted
Q1'26MissedAbout 2,000 heat equipment locations by year-end 2025
Only reached 350 by Q4, now saying 2,000 by end of 2026. Significant delay.
Q4'25DeliveredWill have more to share on rewards program in coming quarters
Detailed spring relaunch plans with in-restaurant focus
Q4'25DeliveredFull year comps to decline in low single-digit range
-1.7% for full year, within guided range
Q4'25DeliveredEurope will begin expanding new restaurant openings in 2026
Confirmed Central London/Frankfurt returns justify expansion
Q4'25DeliveredLabor cost in high 25% range for Q4
Hit 25.5%, within guided range
Q4'25DeliveredCost of sales in high 30% range for Q4
Came in at 30.2%, guidance was accurate
Q4'25DeliveredMarketing costs around 3% of sales for Q4 and full year
Hit 3.5% in Q4, met full year target with elevated spend
Q4'25Exceeded315 to 345 new restaurants in 2025
Opened 345 total (334 company-owned + 11 partner), hit top of range
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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