| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | September 3, 2026 | 7/12 | 3 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | March 5, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 high, 4 medium, 3 low flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | December 11, 2025 | 10/12 | 2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | September 4, 2025 | 9/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 5 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'25 | June 5, 2025 | 5/12 | 3 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags | 3 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'25 | March 11, 2025 | 10/12 | 1 high, 3 medium, 4 low flags | 4 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'24 | December 12, 2024 | 10/12 | 3 medium, 5 low flags | 6 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'24 | September 4, 2024 | 2/12 | 4 high, 4 medium flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'24 | June 6, 2024 | 3/12 | 3 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags | 1 | 2 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | Pending | CapEx between $250M-$275M for FY26 Q1 at $74M suggests 29% of annual already spent; tracking to high end |
| Q1'26 | Pending | First Nubis products GA in fiscal 2026 Vesta samples in calendar Q2 2026 suggests on schedule |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Flat OpEx at $1.52B for FY26 Q1 run-rate of $1.5B-$1.56B suggests on track |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Revenue $5.7B-$6.1B for FY26 Already raised to $5.9B-$6.3B after just one quarter |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Operating margin 17% +/- 1 point for FY26 Q1 at 17.9% on track but dependent on maintaining OpEx discipline |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Gross margins 43% +/- 1 point for FY26 Q1 at 44.7% tracking above range but they walked back H2>H1 improvement |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Three hyperscalers for scale-across training by end of FY25 Delivered three hyperscalers as of Q1 2026, ahead of implied timeline |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Tariff impacts to remain immaterial Confirmed net impact immaterial to bottom line |
| Q4'25 | Pending | Scale across to ramp to hundreds of millions Confirmed on track but revenue just beginning in Q4 |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Accelerate 15-16% operating margin to FY26 Now guiding to 17% +/- 1 point, ahead of September promise |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | 17% growth for FY26 Raised to 24% growth at midpoint just one quarter later |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Q2 was the gross margin floor GM improved from 41.9% in Q3 to 43.4% in Q4 |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Double pluggables revenue in FY25 Achieved >$168M, exceeding the doubling target from FY24 |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | GPU cluster revenue to start later this fiscal year Initial shipments underway, recognizing revenue in Q4 |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Base OpEx on plan for full year Tracking but incentive comp running higher |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Navigator orders up 30% in first half Not updated but presumably sustained given order strength |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Tariff impact to be immaterial in future quarters Q3 impact was 20-30 bps positive vs expected negative |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Q3 revenue guidance of $1.13-1.21B Delivered $1.22B, above high end |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Expect annual gross margins at lower end of 42-44% range Q3 at 41.9%, still below range but improving |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Interconnects to at least double revenue to $150M+ in FY25 Reiterated on track, now saying will double again in FY26 |
| Q2'25 | Exceeded | Revenue growth toward high-end of 8-11% range Raised to 'approximately 14%' growth for fiscal 2025 |
| Q2'25 | Pending | 800G WaveLogic 6 nano GA in first half calendar year Reiterated timeline, deployments expected later in calendar year |
| Q2'25 | Missed | Gross margins toward mid-40s in second half Q3 guided to low 40s, same as Q2, pushing recovery to Q4 at best |
| Q2'25 | Pending | Pluggables to at least double revenue in FY25 Still targeting $150M but no upward revision despite 'record orders' |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Service provider improvement to continue SP business described as having 'nice steady increases' and 'sustainable' |
| Q2'25 | Delivered | Cloud orders well above revenue in Q1 Confirmed orders 'significantly greater than revenue' again in Q2 |
| Q1'25 | Pending | 8-11% revenue growth for FY25 Upgraded confidence to 'toward the high-end' of range, suggests 10-11% now base case |
| Q1'25 | Pending | 42-44% gross margin range for FY25 Reiterated range but Q1 at 44.7% benefited from one-time items, Q2 guided to low-40s |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Inventory reduction of ~$120M in Q4 Achieved $120M reduction as guided, bringing inventory to $820M |
| Q1'25 | Exceeded | Book-to-bill to remain above 1.0 in H2 Not only maintained >1.0 but orders 'more than doubled' YoY |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | Service provider recovery to continue SP revenue up 14% YoY, orders exceeded revenue for second straight quarter |
| Q1'25 | Delivered | WaveLogic 6E general availability in Q4 FY24 Shipped to multiple customers including Verizon, EU Networks, ONE New Zealand as promised |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Operating expense of approximately $350M in Q4 Actual was $355M, within reasonable range of target |
| Q4'24 | Missed | Gross margin in low to mid-40s range for Q4 Came in at 41.6%, below the low-40s target due to E&O charge |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | WaveLogic 6 to recognize revenue in Q4 Confirmed revenue and shipments to multiple customers |
| Q4'24 | Exceeded | Inventory to decline by ~$50M in Q4 Declined by $117M, more than double the target |
| Q4'24 | Exceeded | Book-to-bill expected to be 'maybe slightly below revenue' in Q4 Book-to-bill was above 1.0, they sandbagged this badly |
| Q4'24 | Exceeded | Complete $250M share repurchase by end of FY24 Actually completed the full $1B program, 4x the quarterly target |
| Q4'24 | Delivered | Q4 revenue guidance of $1.06-1.14B Hit $1.12B, middle of range as typical |
| Q3'24 | Pending | $250 million in share repurchases by fiscal year end Only $86M completed through Q3, needs 5x acceleration in Q4 to hit target |
| Q3'24 | Missed | Service provider inventory levels starting to decline No quantification provided despite this being a key Q2 promise. DSO metric disappeared |
| Q3'24 | Pending | Fiscal 2024 revenue approximately $4 billion Maintained $4B target but requires massive Q4 acceleration that looks challenging |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Orders will increase meaningfully in Q3 Orders did increase and book-to-bill exceeded 1.0 |
| Q3'24 | Pending | WaveLogic 6 generally available within a few months Still claiming Q4 availability but now saying revenue won't be material for multiple quarters |
| Q3'24 | Delivered | Book-to-bill potentially meeting or exceeding 1.0 in Q3 Achieved book-to-bill above 1, though heavily weighted to cloud not the telco recovery they implied |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Adjusted gross margin in mid-40s range for FY24 Q2 at 43.5%, down from Q1 45.7%, trending wrong direction |
| Q2'24 | Pending | WaveLogic 6 Extreme general availability this summer Reiterated 'within a few months', still on track |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Share repurchase of $250 million total during the year $89M completed through Q2, need $161M in H2 |
| Q2'24 | Delivered | Operating expense average of $340-345M per quarter Q2 at $334M, on track |
| Q2'24 | Pending | Inventory reduction of at least $200 million for the year Q2 inventory actually increased, Jim admits Q2 'might grow' |
| Q2'24 | Missed | FY24 revenue growth of 1% to 4% ($4.0B to $4.3B) Cut to $4B (low end), effectively flat to down vs FY23 |
| Q2'24 | Missed | Service provider orders to begin increasing significantly in Q2 Orders improved but not significantly, recovery pushed to 'next few quarters' |
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