| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | October 13, 2026 | 8/12 | 1 medium, 1 low flags | 1 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q2'26 | July 14, 2026 | 5/12 | 3 high, 3 medium flags | 2 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | April 14, 2026 | 10/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 6 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | January 14, 2026 | 10/12 | 6 medium, 2 low flags | 6 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q3'26 | Pending | Continue to expect total U.S. credit cards NCL rate between 4-4.5% Narrowed to 'around 4%, the low end of the range' this quarter; full-year actual not yet reported. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Expect full-year efficiency ratio to be around 60% Guidance tightened to 'below 60%' this quarter; full-year actual not yet reported. |
| Q3'26 | Pending | Continue to target an ROTCE of 10-11% for the full year Target was revised upward intra-year to 'above 11%'; this is a guidance revision, not a resolved full-year outcome, which is not yet known. |
| Q3'26 | Exceeded | Full-year target of approximately $800 million of disallowed DTA burn-down YTD utilization already reached $900 million through Q3, surpassing the stated full-year target with a quarter remaining. |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Complete sale of Poland consumer business this summer Not mentioned this quarter, timeline uncertain |
| Q2'26 | Exceeded | $800M of severance for full year Already at $800M in H1, now saying 'may do more' |
| Q2'26 | Pending | US Cards NCL between 4-4.5% Trending better but maintained range |
| Q2'26 | Pending | Efficiency ratio around 60% At 57.5% H1, deliberately planning deterioration in H2 |
| Q2'26 | Delivered | NII ex-Markets growth of 5-6% Running at 6% in Q2, on track |
| Q2'26 | Pending | ROTCE of 10-11% for 2026 Tracking at 13.1% H1 but refusing to raise despite outperformance |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Capital return acceleration $6.3B buybacks vs $4.5B Q4, record quarterly pace |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Positive operating leverage across businesses Achieved in four of five businesses and firm overall |
| Q1'26 | Delivered | Continued transformation progress Moved from 80% to 90% complete, ahead of expectations |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 5-6% NII ex-Markets growth Q1 up 7% including FX impact, organic growth ahead of plan |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Around 60% efficiency ratio Q1 at 58% despite $500M severance, showing strong operating leverage |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | 10-11% ROTCE for 2026 Q1 delivered 13.1%, well ahead of pace even accounting for seasonality |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Markets sequential decline of 15-20% typical Q3 to Q4 Only declined 1% vs historical 15-20% seasonal pattern |
| Q4'25 | Missed | Positive operating leverage for firm and all five businesses Only delivered for majority of five businesses in Q4 |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Continue share repurchases in Q4 under $20B program $4.5B vs $3.5B guided, total $13B for year |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Card NCL rates within guided ranges Branded cards 3.6% and retail services 5.73%, both at or below low end |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | NII ex-markets up around 5.5% for 2025 Delivered nearly 6% growth |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | Over $84 billion in revenues for 2025 Delivered $85.2B in reported revenues, $86.6B adjusted |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Efficiency ratio slightly below 64% for full year 2025 Achieved 63% adjusted efficiency ratio |
Get free previews of our earnings-call research: the key changes, management scores, and questions worth investigating. Subscribe for full call sheets and deeper analysis.
Subscriptions are managed by Substack. If the form does not load, subscribe directly. Or follow the RSS feed.