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Management credibility scorecard

Burlington Stores (BURL)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 27, 2026
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100%
Kept of 17 resolved
17
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
2
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 27, 20267/122 medium flags00Call sheet →
Q1'26May 28, 202611/126 low flags40Call sheet →
Q4'25March 5, 202612/121 medium, 5 low flags60Call sheet →
Q3'25November 25, 202510/122 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags70Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q1'26DeliveredTax refund upside especially in Q1 (from Q4 call)
Quantified at 1.5-2 points of comp benefit
Q1'26PendingStore Experience 2.0 completion across chain by end of year (from Q4 call)
Reiterated this timeline
Q1'26Exceeded110 net new stores for 2026 (from Q4 call)
Raised to 115 net new stores
Q1'26DeliveredAny ahead-of-plan sales in 2026 will drive further operating margin expansion (from Q4 call)
Q1 showed exactly this - 6% comp drove 20bps expansion vs guided decline
Q1'26ExceededWe are raising our comp guidance to 1% to 3% for the full year (from Q4 call)
Updated to 2-4% range, passing through Q1 outperformance
Q1'26PendingWe think there may be potential upside in Q3 and maybe even in Q4 (from Q4 call)
Still maintaining this view for 2026 back half, reiterated on this call
Q4'25DeliveredStrong new store performance
New stores meeting $7M target and comping above chain
Q4'25ExceededContinued margin expansion despite tariffs
Not only maintained but accelerated margin expansion
Q4'25Delivered104 net new stores for 2025
Opened exactly 104 net new stores as planned
Q4'25DeliveredFull year EBIT margin expansion of 60-70bps
Hit 80bps at high end despite tariff headwinds
Q4'25ExceededQ4 EBIT margin expansion of 30-50bps
Delivered 100bps expansion, double the high end
Q4'25ExceededQ4 comp guidance of 0-2% maintained
Delivered 4% comp, well above high end of guidance range
Q3'25ExceededOffset most but not all incremental tariff pressure
Fully offset tariff impact and raised full-year margin guidance by 30bps
Q3'25DeliveredReady to chase if trend turns stronger, with great deals in reserve
Did chase when weather turned in mid-October, comp improved to mid-single digits
Q3'25Exceeded100 net new stores in fiscal 2025
Raised to 104 net new stores, 4% increase from original plan
Q3'25ExceededQ3 EPS guidance of $1.50 to $1.60
Delivered $1.80 vs $1.50-1.60 guidance, $0.20-0.30 beat
Q3'25ExceededOperating margin of down 20 basis points to flat vs Q3 2024
Delivered +60bps expansion vs guidance of down 20bps to flat, major beat
Q3'25ExceededTotal sales increase of 5% to 7% for Q3
Delivered 7% total sales growth, at high end of guidance
Q3'25DeliveredComp store sales guidance of 0% to 2% for Q3
Delivered 1% comp, within guidance range but at low end
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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