| Quarter | Call date | Disclosure | Financial quality | Kept | Missed | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26 | August 5, 2026 | 4/12 | 2 high, 2 medium, 2 low flags | 0 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q1'26 | May 6, 2026 | 10/12 | 2 medium, 4 low flags | 2 | 1 | Call sheet → |
| Q4'25 | February 11, 2026 | 9/12 | - | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Q3'25 | November 5, 2025 | 9/12 | 1 medium, 5 low flags | 5 | 0 | Call sheet → |
| Marked | Status | Promise |
|---|---|---|
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Maintain exceptional margins while scaling Expanded to 85% EBITDA margin, 400 bps improvement YoY |
| Q1'26 | Exceeded | Continue 20-30% long-term gaming growth rates Gaming still growing 59% YoY, never had quarter close to those modest targets |
| Q1'26 | Missed | Connected TV as top priority for 2025 Quietly deprioritized, now described as 'early development' and 'long term' |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Improve self-serve conversion from 57% to closer to 100% Still working on this 'over the next couple of weeks' but has been ongoing issue |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Roll out generative AI video tools to broader customer base Still in testing phase, promised 'shortly' but timeline has slipped multiple quarters |
| Q1'26 | Pending | Open self-serve platform in first half of 2026 Now committed to June 2026, narrowed from H1 to specific month |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Paid marketing testing for AXON 30-day LTV:CAC breakeven, though still 'light volume' |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Model improvements every quarter Multiple lifts mentioned, specific e-commerce uplift 'a few weeks ago' |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Generative AI creative tools testing 100+ customers piloting interactive page generation |
| Q4'25 | Pending | First half 2026 GA launch Now sounds less confident - 43% breakage rate is the real issue |
| Q4'25 | Exceeded | International e-commerce traffic in Q3 Delivered ahead of schedule, though excluding EU |
| Q4'25 | Delivered | Self-service platform launch October 1, 2025 Launched on time without major issues - actually impressed by execution |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | Begin paid marketing once AXON fully open next year Already actively testing paid marketing ahead of schedule |
| Q3'25 | Pending | Global public launch in first half of 2026 Timeline now conditional on quality satisfaction rather than firm commitment |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Continued double-digit MAX marketplace growth Confirmed as continuing at double-digit rates, multiples above in-app purchasing market |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | Focus on preparation for self-serve launch while limiting new customer onboarding Successfully built ads manager, dynamic product ads, attribution integrations, and Shopify app |
| Q3'25 | Exceeded | International traffic opening for web advertisers in Q3 Delivered ahead of schedule, now live in most major markets except EU |
| Q3'25 | Delivered | October 1 self-service platform launch on referral basis Launched on time with no major hiccups or bugs, exactly as promised |
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