APi Group (APG)

Management Credibility Scorecard · 5 quarters tracked (Q1'25 - Q1'26)
Last updated April 30, 2026 · latest call analyzed
100%
Kept of 18 resolved
18
Kept / Exceeded
0
Missed
13
Still Pending

Grade History

QuarterDisclosure QualityFinancial Quality
Q1'25 →A-B+
Q2'25 →B+B-
Q3'25 →B+B
Q4'25 →B+A
Q1'26 →B+B

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedPromiseStatus
Q1'26⏳Deploy approximately $250 million in bolt-on M&A
On track per management guidance, with 4 bolt-ons completed in Q1
pending
Q1'26✅Continue inspection revenue double-digit growth streak
Management confirmed double-digit growth continued but stopped highlighting the streak
delivered
Q1'26✅Double-digit organic growth in Specialty Services
Delivered 24.8% organic growth, well above double-digit commitment
exceeded
Q1'26✅Mid-single digit organic growth in Safety Services
Q1 delivered 5.4% which management called 'a pretty good run rate for the year'
delivered
Q1'26✅80% adjusted free cash flow conversion target
Achieved exactly 80% conversion in 2025, right on target
delivered
Q1'26✅Achieve 13% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2025
Delivered 13.2% for full year 2025, beating target by 20 basis points
exceeded
Q4'25✅Organic growth algorithm of mid-single digits long term
2026 guidance of 5% at midpoint is technically mid-single digit but at the low end
delivered
Q4'25✅Continue double-digit inspection growth momentum
Achieved 21st consecutive quarter but warned it will get 'tougher to comp'
delivered
Q4'25⏳Inspection service monitoring 60%+ of revenues over long term
Reached 54% in 2025, up from 40% in 2021, progressing toward target
pending
Q4'25✅Adjusted EBITDA margin above 13% for 2025
Achieved 13.2% full year margin, above the 13% component of 13-60-80 targets
delivered
Q4'25✅Deploy approximately $250 million in bolt-on M&A in 2025
Completed 14 acquisitions in 2025 as part of broader $580M across 2023-2025
delivered
Q4'25✅Finish 2025 at approximately 75% free cash flow conversion
Delivered 80% conversion, hitting their original 13-60-80 target exactly
exceeded
Q3'25✅Double-digit inspection growth continuation in North America Safety
Achieved 21st consecutive quarter of double-digit inspection growth as committed
delivered
Q3'25✅Consistent mid-single-digit organic growth over long term
Delivered 10% organic growth in Q3, well above mid-single-digit target
exceeded
Q3'25⏳13% adjusted EBITDA margin goal for 2025
Q3 at 13.5% with full year guidance midpoint above 13%, on track to deliver
pending
Q3'25⏳Adjusted free cash flow conversion of approximately 75% for full year
YTD conversion at 58% with Q4 traditionally strongest, reaffirmed 75% target
pending
Q3'25✅Sequential margin improvement in Specialty Services through back half of year
Specialty segment margin improved 60 bps sequentially from Q2 to Q3 as promised
delivered
Q3'25⏳Target approximately $250 million in bolt-on M&A deployment for 2025
On track with 11 deals completed, management confirmed still targeting this level for full year
pending
Q2'25⏳Adjusted free cash flow conversion target of approximately 75% for the year
H1 conversion only 40%, relying on seasonal H2 improvement to hit target
pending
Q2'25✅First elevator service bolt-on under APi elevator platform
Completed second elevator business acquisition in Q2
delivered
Q2'25⏳Deploy approximately $250M in accretive bolt-on M&A this year
On track with 7 deals closed, several more under LOI - potential to exceed target
pending
Q2'25✅Continue to see margin expansion initiatives drive results
30 bps adjusted EBITDA margin expansion year-over-year
delivered
Q2'25✅Specialty Services to return to growth in Q2
Delivered 13.3% organic growth vs. expectation of modest positive growth
exceeded
Q2'25✅Target mid- to upper single-digit revenue growth in service side, low to mid-single digit on project side
Safety Services achieved 5.6% organic growth in line with guidance
delivered
Q1'25⏳Elevator service first bolt-on acquisition in 2025
Confirmed expectation but emphasized measured 'walk before run' approach
pending
Q1'25⏳$250M bolt-on M&A spend in 2025
Reiterated same target, described pipeline as 'robust'
pending
Q1'25✅Complete $125M Chubb value capture program
$90M achieved, remaining $35M by early 2026 as originally planned
delivered
Q1'25⏳75% adjusted free cash flow conversion for full year 2025
Q1 at 45% conversion, typical seasonality pattern
pending
Q1'25⏳Adjusted EBITDA margin of 13% or more in 2025
Q1 at 11.2% with seasonality, full year guidance 13.4% midpoint - on track
pending
Q1'25⏳Specialty Services positive organic growth in Q2
Reiterated identical language, backlog up 7% organically supports this
pending
Q1'25⏳Return to traditional rates of organic growth in 2025 (mid-single digits)
Q1 delivered 2% organic growth vs guided decline, ahead of schedule
pending
Get the next APG call sheet the day it drops.
Subscribe to Call Sheet Daily →
Every missed promise →  ·  Metrics that vanished →  ·  All credibility pages →
About Research ↗ · Credibility Index · Missed Promises · Screens · 13F Holdings · Subscribe
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Grades, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.