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Management credibility scorecard

Amgen (AMGN)

4 quarters tracked (Q3'25 to Q2'26) · latest call August 4, 2026
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100%
Kept of 15 resolved
15
Kept or exceeded
0
Missed
8
Still pending
Share count, 3 yrs/yr · flat

Score History

QuarterCall dateDisclosureFinancial qualityKeptMissed
Q2'26August 4, 20268/122 high, 3 medium, 2 low flags10Call sheet →
Q1'26April 30, 20269/122 medium, 3 low flags30Call sheet →
Q4'25February 3, 20269/12-60Call sheet →
Q3'252025-11-049/121 medium, 4 low flags50Call sheet →
Disclosure: the 6-item rubric, each scored 0-2, out of 12. Financial quality: flagged indicators by severity. Kept and missed count the prior-quarter promises scored on that call.

Promise Ledger · All Quarters

MarkedStatusPromise
Q2'26PendingTwo Phase III Sjogren's studies for dazodolibep expected to complete later this year
Confirmed still pending, with management adding hedge language ('very hopeful, but humbled') this quarter.
Q2'26PendingFY2026 CapEx of approximately $2.6 billion
Full-year period has not ended. Q2 actual spend of $500M following Q1's $700M implies a steep back-half acceleration is required to hit the guide, which was not restated this quarter.
Q2'26PendingWe expect to engage further with the FDA on the Tavneos withdrawal proceeding
No update given on this call at all; status unverified, actual engagement outcome not stated.
Q2'26PendingWe anticipate accelerated sales erosion over the remainder of 2026 for Enbrel/Otezla driven by increased competition from multiple biosimilars
Q2 erosion was -33% vs -32% in Q1, directionally consistent with the forecast but the 'remainder of 2026' period has not ended; too early to call delivered.
Q2'26ExceededWe further expect the second quarter operating margin to be in line with the first quarter operating margin (45%)
Q2 non-GAAP operating margin came in at 48%, three points above the prior quarter's guide.
Q1'26DeliveredFocus resources on late-stage programs with rocotinlimab termination
Terminated rocotinlimab collaboration, discontinued AMG 193 development
Q1'26PendingExpect accelerated sales erosion for Prolia/XGEVA over remainder of 2026
Q1 showed -32% decline, management reconfirmed expectation of further acceleration
Q1'26PendingAdditional global launches of TEPEZZA in 2026 and beyond
Mentioned continued expansion but no specific countries or timing provided
Q1'26DeliveredDisciplined data generation and execution across Phase 3 programs in 2026
Added two new Meritide Phase III studies, progressing TEPEZZA subcutaneous, Aplisna expansion
Q1'26Delivered2026 as a springboard year for Amgen with rapidly growing products offsetting patent expirations
Q1 results show six key growth drivers at 24% growth representing 70% of sales, offsetting Prolia decline
Q4'25PendingUpdate on Opaziran Ocean-A timeline as study matures
Still no specific timeline provided, event accrual remains lower than predicted
Q4'25DeliveredContinue advancing Maritide Phase III cardiovascular outcomes studies
Maritime-CV and Maritime-HF progressing with enrollment
Q4'25DeliveredTezspire approval for nasal polyps
FDA approved for chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps
Q4'25DeliveredIMDELLTRA full approval anticipated in Q4
FDA granted full approval in fourth quarter
Q4'25DeliveredUPLIZNA approval in generalized myasthenia gravis by December PDUFA
FDA approval received December as scheduled
Q4'25DeliveredVESALIUS-CV data presentation at American Heart Association
Presented in November with positive primary endpoints
Q4'25DeliveredBoth Phase III chronic weight management studies fully enrolled
Completed enrollment in 6 months as projected
Q3'25DeliveredGreater than $500M Horizon cost synergies
Confirmed achievement in 2025
Q3'25ExceededReturn to pre-Horizon capital structure
Achieved ahead of plan with $6B debt retirement YTD
Q3'25DeliveredOperating margin ~45% of product sales
Confirmed 47% operating margin maintained despite R&D increase
Q3'25ExceededNon-GAAP R&D growth over 20% in 2025
Came in at 31% YoY growth in Q3, driven by business development
Q3'25DeliveredVESALIUS-CV readout second half 2025
AHA presentation confirmed for November 8, ahead of schedule
Q3'25PendingMariTide Part 2 data Q4 2025
Still on track but pre-walking back expectations for weight loss insights
Each row is a promise from the prior call, scored against the quarter in "Marked". Kept-promise rate counts resolved promises only; pending is excluded.
Promise-kept rate counts resolved promises only (pending excluded).
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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