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Call sheet · Q2'26

TerraWulf (WULF)

Q2'26 earnings call · held August 5, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
5 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that adjusted EBITDA losses widened from -$4.1M to -$18.3M and adjusted segment margin slipped from 85% to 80% in the same quarter management is touting its best execution yet; the market will focus on the $19B Anthropic lease and Google's $600M credit support going live, but the real binding constraint remains electrical labor and tenant-driven design churn, not demand, as management itself admits: 'Electrical labor remains highly constrained across the data center industry.' CB5's slip from a promised Q4 2026 delivery to 'very early January' is the clearest evidence that execution, not demand, is the gating factor, and the new $150M tenant fit-out financing mechanism is a structure worth watching closely for recurrence. My view changes if Q3 shows the adjusted HPC margin bridge shrinking back toward 85% and CB4 actually goes live on the late-September date as promised; a second consecutive schedule slip or further margin addback growth would confirm this is a trend, not a one-off.

The 30-second version

  • Adjusted EBITDA losses are widening, not narrowing, even as revenue nearly doubles sequentially
  • Headline: Anthropic's $19B, 401MW lease and Google's $600M credit support going live look like a triumphant quarter
  • The margin story quietly got worse while management kept the same 'adjusted to 80-85%' framing

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Total Revenue$34.0M$44.8M+32% QoQ, driven by HPC ramp
HPC Lease Revenue$21.0M$31.9M+52% QoQ
HPC Revenue % of TotalNot disclosed as a percentage71%New disclosure format, absolute-to-ratio shift
Adjusted EBITDA-$4.1M-$18.3MLoss widened 4.5x despite revenue growth
GAAP Net Loss-$427.6M-$939.9MLoss more than doubled, mostly non-cash warrant charge
HPC Segment Margin (Reported)~50%~28%-22pts, driven by fit-out costs and pre-revenue opex
HPC Segment Margin (Adjusted)~85%~80%-5pts even after management's own addbacks
Adjusted SG&A$26.3M$28.6M+9% QoQ
Cash Interest Paid$5.3M$125.7MFirst semiannual note payment hits cash flow hard
Parent Unrestricted Cash$300M actual, $1.5B pro forma$1.2B actual, $1.45B pro forma w/ Abernathy proceedsLiquidity build continues

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged5 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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