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Call sheet · Q2'26

Sea (SE)

Q2'26 earnings call · held August 11, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
6/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 3 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story here is that consolidated adjusted EBITDA declined YoY to $917M even though Shopee, Money, and Garena all posted double-digit segment EBITDA growth, a bridge gap management never addressed and no analyst asked about. The obvious headline, 48% revenue growth and a new $1B Shopee EBITDA target, is real but sits on top of quietly decelerating engines: ad revenue growth (80%→70% YoY), purchase frequency (12%→8% YoY), and Garena bookings (20%→15% YoY), partly papered over by a brand-new, denominator-light 'new active buyers +35%' metric. The binding constraint isn't demand, it's disclosure discipline: management gave us a specific Shopee margin bridge (0.67% to 2-3%) but went silent on the buyer AI assistant when asked directly, pivoting instead to seller-side tools. As Tony Ho's own words described total adjusted EBITDA as having been 'cut by 11% year-on-year' against a backdrop of 'strong momentum', that's a phrase that should have triggered a question and didn't. My view changes if next quarter's call explicitly reconciles the corporate/other EBITDA drag and discloses CFFO; until then, I'd treat the headline beat with real skepticism on earnings quality.

The 30-second version

  • Total company adjusted EBITDA fell YoY while every single segment grew double digits, and nobody on the call asked why.
  • 48% revenue growth and a new $1B Shopee EBITDA target are the headline, but the underlying growth engine is quietly decelerating.
  • The buyer-facing AI shopping assistant quietly vanished from management's answer, and Money's risk narrative flipped without explanation.

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Total Revenue (YoY)$7.1B, +47% YoY$7.8B, +48% YoYSlight acceleration
Total Adjusted EBITDA (YoY)>$1.0B, +9% YoY$917M, 'cut by 11%' YoYReversal from growth to decline despite segment strength
Net Income (YoY)$438M, +7% YoY$458M, +11% YoYModest acceleration
Shopee GMV (YoY)$37.3B, +30% YoY$38.3B, +28% YoYDeceleration, 2pts
Shopee Adjusted EBITDA (YoY)$223M vs $464M prior-year base$255M, +12% YoYReturn to YoY growth off easier base
Money Loan Book (YoY)$9.9B, +70%/71% YoY$11.1B, +62% YoYGrowth rate decelerating
Money NPL Ratio (90-day)1.1%1.0%Improved 10bps
Money Adjusted EBITDA (YoY)$275M, +14% YoY$288M, +13% YoYFlattish growth rate
Garena Bookings (YoY)$931M, +20% YoY$764M, +15% YoYDeceleration plus lower absolute $
Garena Adjusted EBITDA (YoY)$574M, +25% YoY$430M, +17% YoYDeceleration

Accountability tracked

4 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged5 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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