Sunrun (RUN)

The sleeper story is Sunrun's retreat from the asset sale model that crushed their key metrics - they're pivoting to joint ventures to preserve the optics while still accessing capital, revealing the original strategy was flawed. While everyone focuses on storage attachment rates hitting 71%, the real constraint is margin compression from cost inflation (creation costs up 8% YoY, insurance rising, equipment prices up) hitting just as ITC pricing deteriorates. Management's decision to cut affiliate volume by 40%+ while promising only modest direct growth shows they're choosing quality over quantity, but it also means shrinking their addressable market. As Danny admitted: 'We've taken a slightly lower view on potential ITC pricing in the market.' My view changes if they can show grid services revenue scaling faster than the $2K NPV estimate suggests, or if the direct business actually delivers double-digit growth to offset affiliate cuts.