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Call sheet · Q1'26

PG&E (PCG)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 23, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 5 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is a data center pipeline that doubled to 4.6 GW in final engineering-this isn't just PowerPoint anymore, it's projects with real engineering costs and committed customers. Everyone will focus on the 0% bill growth target, but that's back-end loaded on these data centers actually coming online by 2030. The binding constraint is wildfire legislation-if SB 254 fails, they've now explicitly threatened to blow up the $73B capital plan and dividend policy. Poppe was unusually direct: 'We will not continue to sustain this valuation.' My view changes if the data center conversion rate from final engineering to construction disappoints, or if they start hedging their language on SB 254 progress when the legislative session heats up this summer.

The 30-second version

  • Data center pipeline exploded to 4.6 GW in final engineering-that's a 28% jump in one quarter
  • The 0% to 3% bill growth story is real, but it's back-end loaded and depends on data centers
  • SB 254 wildfire reform is make-or-break for capital allocation, and they're getting more explicit about the nuclear option

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Core EPS$0.33 in Q1 2025$0.43 in Q1 2026+$0.10 or 30% YoY growth
Data center final engineering2.3 GW at Q4 2025 update4.6 GW+100% quarter-over-quarter surge
Rate reductions for vulnerable customersDown 20% since Jan 2024 (Q4 call)Down 23% since Jan 2024Additional 300 bps improvement
Continuous monitoring prevented outages12M minutes prevented in all of 20254M minutes prevented in Q1 2026 aloneRun rate suggests 16M+ for full year
System hardening target through 2037Not specified in Q4Nearly 11,000 miles plannedNew long-term visibility provided
Undergrounding cost avoidanceNot quantified in Q4$100M+ maintenance spend avoidedFirst quantification of savings
Investment grade progressFitch IG, others outlook stableMoody's revised outlook to positiveMomentum building across agencies
O&M savings target2% to 4% range established Q42% to 4% range reaffirmedNo change but confidence reinforced
Full year 2026 EPS guidance$1.64 to $1.66$1.64 to $1.66 reaffirmedUnchanged but strong Q1 supports
Capital plan size$73B through 2030$73B through 2030 unchangedDiscipline maintained despite opportunities

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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