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Call sheet · Q2'25

NVIDIA (NVDA)

Q2'25 earnings call · held August 28, 2024 · compared with the Q1'25 call · management-credibility review
9/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Blackwell's stealth delay creating artificial scarcity while management frames production timing as optimization rather than yield issues. The obvious headline is another revenue beat and raise, but the binding constraint is actually production execution risk as NVIDIA juggles three simultaneous product ramps (H200, Blackwell, Spectrum-X) while customers build unrealistic demand expectations. Jensen's most revealing quote: 'We executed a change to the Blackwell GPU mask to improve production yields' - classic engineering speak for 'we had to fix something.' The demand pyramid of Hopper acceleration, H200 constraints, and Blackwell anticipation may be unsustainable if customers realize wait times. My view changes if Q3 Blackwell sampling reveals actual performance gains or if sovereign AI customers provide contract visibility.

The 30-second version

  • Blackwell mask fix stealth delays $10B+ revenue into FY26 while management frames as production readiness
  • China revenue rebounding while Hopper demand accelerates creates artificial scarcity setup
  • Sovereign AI revenue doubled to 'low-double-digit billions' but lacks any unit economics or sustainability metrics

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'25Q2'25Change
Total Revenue$26.0B (+262% YoY)$30.0B (+122% YoY)YoY deceleration of 140bps despite beat
Data Center Revenue$22.6B (+427% YoY)$26.3B (+154% YoY)Massive 273bps YoY deceleration
Gaming Revenue$2.65B (+18% YoY)$2.88B (+16% YoY)Modest sequential recovery but YoY softening
GAAP Gross Margin78.4%75.1%330bps compression
Non-GAAP Gross Margin78.9%75.7%320bps compression on new product mix
Operating Cash FlowNot disclosed$14.5BStrong absolute number
Q3 Revenue Guide$28B guidance$32.5B guidance16% sequential beat and raise
Full-Year Gross Margin GuideMid-70s%Mid-70s%Unchanged despite Q2 compression
OpEx Growth GuideLow 40% rangeMid-to-upper 40% rangeInvestment acceleration
Inference Revenue MixAbout 40% trailing 4QMore than 40% trailing 4QContinued inference scaling

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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