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Call sheet · Q4'25

Kinder Morgan (KMI)

Q4'25 earnings call · held January 21, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
6 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story everyone's missing: KMI is quietly becoming a basis trading powerhouse as much as a pure-play pipeline company. Their Q4 beat came from 'volatility and upside' across their network when supply/demand dislocates - that's option value, not just contracted throughput. The obvious LNG story is real (19.8 Bcf/day demand in 2026), but the binding constraint is compression delivery, not capital - they have $3B+ balance sheet capacity but lead times limit how fast they can build. Management quote that stuck: 'The gas transportation market is very tight... that is going to present opportunities for us.' My view changes if they start missing FERC timelines or if the power demand proves speculative rather than backed by utility IRPs.

The 30-second version

  • The stealth winner: Natural gas storage and basis trading quietly carrying the quarter
  • LNG backlog story is real but power generation is the sleeper multiplier
  • CapEx guidance creep: $3B is the new floor, not ceiling

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Adjusted EBITDA Q4Up 6% YoY in Q3Up 10% YoY+400 bps acceleration quarter-over-quarter
Adjusted EPS Q4Up 16% YoY in Q3Up 22% YoY+600 bps acceleration
Natural gas transport volumesUp 6% YoY in Q3Up 9% YoY+300 bps acceleration
Natural gas gathering volumesUp 9% YoY in Q3Up 19% YoY+1000 bps acceleration
Project backlog$9.3B (flat QoQ)$10.0B+$700M sequential growth despite $265M placed in service
Net debt to EBITDA3.9x3.8x10 bps improvement
Annual CapEx guidance$2.5B frameworkAt least $3B per year+$500M floor increase
Refined products volumesDown 1% YoY in Q3Down 2% YoY100 bps deterioration
Crude volumes (ex-HH)Down 3% YoY in Q3Up 6% YoY+900 bps improvement
Opportunity pipeline$10B rangeGreater than $10BScope expansion

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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