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Call sheet · Q4'25

Gilead Sciences (GILD)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 10, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
10/12
Disclosure score
1 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is YES2GO's pricing power - hitting 90% coverage ahead of schedule with 90% getting $0 co-pay suggests payers see differentiated value worth paying for. The obvious headline of 6% HIV growth masks the real 10% underlying growth after stripping out Part D headwinds. The binding constraint is now competitive pressure in cell therapy where clinical trials are actually cannibalizing commercial volumes as patients choose studies over approved therapies. Management's quote that YES2GO has 'transformative potential to bend the curve of the HIV epidemic' isn't just marketing - the coverage speed suggests real clinical differentiation. My view changes if YES2GO persistency rates disappoint or if the new 2% pricing headwinds in 2026 prove to be recurring rather than one-time.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: YES2GO's coverage speed reveals pricing power that's not in the base case
  • HIV business actually grew 10% excluding Part D headwind, not the reported 6%
  • Cell therapy declining 10% in 2026 while prepping Anidocel launch - margin compression risk

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Total Product Sales$7.3B (+4% YoY Q3)$7.9B (+5% YoY Q4)Sequential acceleration
HIV Revenue$5.3B (+4% YoY Q3)$5.8B (+6% YoY Q4)Record quarterly HIV sales
YES2GO Revenue$39M (Q3)$96M (Q4)+146% sequential growth
Biktarvy Sales$3.7B (+6% YoY Q3)$4.0B (+5% YoY Q4)Growth decelerated 100bps
Libdelzi Sales$111M (Q3)$150M (Q4)+42% sequential, topped $100M for first time in Q4
Cell Therapy Sales$432M (-11% YoY Q3)$458M (-6% YoY Q4)Still declining but rate improved
Non-GAAP EPS$2.47 (+22% YoY Q3)$1.86 (-2% YoY Q4)Sharp deceleration from Q3 momentum
Product Gross Margin86% (Q3)86.4% (Q4)Marginal improvement
R&D Expenses$1.3B (-3% YoY Q3)$1.6B (-3% YoY Q4)Consistent cost discipline
HIV Market Share (Biktarvy US)~52% (Q3)>52% (Q4)Continued share gains

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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