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Call sheet · Q1'26

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS)

Q1'26 earnings call · held May 8, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
6/12
Disclosure score
2 high, 4 medium, 2 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is that FIS just signed away their AI future to Anthropic while pretending they own it; yes, they own the agents, but Anthropic owns the intelligence layer and gets paid on every token, making FIS a distribution channel, not an AI player. The market sees strong free cash flow and exciting AI partnerships, but Capital Markets is deteriorating faster than admitted with lending headwinds they're now baking into full year guidance after hoping it would improve. The binding constraint isn't technology or competition, it's that their core growth engines are decelerating while they're betting everything on unproven AI agents that won't generate revenue until 2027 at earliest. Management admitted 'nothing is contemplated in our guide in 2026' for AI revenue. My view changes if they can show actual agent revenue in 2026 or if Capital Markets recurring growth reaccelerates above 5%.

The 30-second version

  • The Anthropic partnership isn't just vendor theater; FIS owns the agents and the regulated infrastructure while Anthropic provides disposable LLMs
  • Free cash flow doubled to $474M (111% YoY) but capital markets is quietly deteriorating with lending softness masked by license timing games
  • Banking ACV up 13% but they stopped disclosing average contract values and switched to absolute ACV numbers without denominators

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Pro Forma Revenue Growth5.8% YoY (Q4 2025)6.5% YoY (Q1 2026)+70 bps acceleration
Adjusted EBITDA Margin38.7% (Q4 2025)39.6% (Q1 2026)+87 bps expansion
Free Cash Flow$224M (Q1 2025)$474M (Q1 2026)111% surge YoY
Banking Solutions Revenue8.3% growth (Q4 2025)7.7% pro forma growth60 bps deceleration
Capital Markets Revenue5.6% growth (Q4 2025)2.9% growth270 bps collapse
Banking Recurring Revenue6.0% growth (FY 2025)5.2% growth80 bps deceleration
Capital Markets Recurring Revenue5.8% growth (FY 2025)3.6% growth220 bps deceleration
Recurring ACV Growth20% YoY (Q4 2025)24% YoY+400 bps acceleration
Banking ACV Growth13% YoY (Q4 2025)13% YoYFlat
Capital Markets ACV Growth34% YoY (Q4 2025)45% YoY+1100 bps acceleration

Accountability tracked

7 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged5 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
Read the full FIS Q1'26 report Subscribe
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This is a free preview. The full write-up and promise ledger are published to subscribers on Substack.
Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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