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Call sheet · Q2'26

Ford Motor (F)

Q2'26 earnings call · held July 28, 2026 · compared with the Q1'26 call · management-credibility review
5/12
Disclosure score
3 high, 4 medium, 1 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Ford Energy is the real story here, not the headline EBIT beat. With 20 GWh capacity coming online and customer conversations in 'third inning,' this could be a $2-3B revenue business by 2029 with utility-like margins. The obvious headline of raising guidance despite Novellus is actually just mix and pricing offsetting volume weakness, not operational improvement. The binding constraint is aluminum supply through year-end, capping their highest-margin Super Duty production. Farley's comment that Ford Energy has 'very short payback' unlike defense opportunities signals where capital allocation is heading. My view changes if Ford Energy hasn't signed at least 10 GWh of binding contracts by Q4.

The 30-second version

  • Ford Energy quietly scaling to 20 GWh by late 2027, already 'in real depth' on customer conversations
  • EBIT raise to $10-11B driven by pricing power, not volume recovery
  • Model E investment 'accelerating' in H2 but UEV order timing walked back

What changed this quarter

MetricQ1'26Q2'26Change
Revenue$43.3B (+6% YoY)$48.3B (-4% YoY)Sequential +11.6% but YoY deceleration
Adjusted EBIT$3.5B (+52% YoY)$2.5B (+17% YoY)Growth rate collapsed 35 points
EPS (Adjusted)$0.62$0.47-24% sequential decline
Net Income$1.8B-$1.3B lossSwung to loss on $3.6B BlueOval SK charge
Ford Blue EBIT$1.9B$1.1B-42% sequential despite pricing strength
Ford Pro EBIT$1.7B$1.7BFlat despite Novellus headwinds
Model E Loss-$777M-$919MLosses widened 18% sequentially
Adjusted Free Cash Flow-$1.9B use+$2.1B generationSwung $4B positive
Cash Balance$22.0B$22.3B+$300M despite disruption
Paid Software Subscriptions879K Pro Intelligence900K+ Pro Intelligence+2.4% QoQ growth slowing

Accountability tracked

6 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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