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Call sheet · Q4'25

DuPont de Nemours (DD)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 10, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
6 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The market is missing that shelter business stabilization is worth 150+ basis points of organic growth just from absence of negative - this 25% of revenue going from -6% to flat is the real unlock, not portfolio positioning. Management delivered on all 2025 promises and gave specific 2026 targets suggesting confidence in operational trajectory. The binding constraint isn't demand (healthcare/water growing mid-single digits) but construction market timing for the diversified portfolio. Koch's quote 'even getting to flat actually has a nice impact' reveals how much shelter has been dragging results. My view changes if shelter recovery stalls in Q2 or if healthcare M&A valuations force them to overpay.

The 30-second version

  • Shelter business stabilization is the real unlock, not headline portfolio positioning
  • Healthcare margin expansion story accelerating beyond the 3-year targets
  • M&A pipeline is 'robust' but concentrated in healthcare - water valuations too rich

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Net Sales$3.1B (+7% YoY)$1.7B (flat YoY)Quarterly comp but full year 2% organic growth delivered
Operating EBITDA$840M (+6% YoY)$409M (+4% YoY)+100 bps margin expansion to 24.2%
Adjusted EPS$1.09 (flat YoY)$0.46 (+18% YoY)Strong acceleration driven by mix and productivity
Healthcare & Water OrganicHigh single-digit Q33% Q4 (5% adj for timing)Maintained mid-single digit momentum
Diversified Industrial OrganicLow single-digit Q3-4% Q4 (-2% adj for timing)Shelter drag continues but aerospace strength building
Diversified Industrial Margin25.9% Q322.6% Q4 (+110 bps YoY)Dramatic margin expansion despite volume decline
Free Cash Flow Conversion126% Q3>90% guided 2026Strong sustained conversion expected
Organic Growth Guidance2% full year 2025~3% full year 202650 bps acceleration guided
Vitality Index~30% mentioned at Investor Day30% maintained with $2B new product sales145 bps margin premium disclosed
Shelter BusinessDown mid-single digits 2025Flat expected 2026600+ bps improvement trajectory

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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