Constellation Energy (CEG)

The sleeper story isn't the guidance raise or the 920MW of nuclear PPAs, it's that CEG stopped talking about cash flow entirely this quarter after building an entire Q1 slide around FCF visibility through 2029, and quietly dropped the thermal fleet's capacity factor from disclosure. The obvious headline, a $0.50 guidance raise to $11.50-$12.50 plus 920MW of long-term nuclear deals, is real, but the binding constraint remains regulatory sequencing, not demand: PJM's co-location clarity target quietly slipped from "by the end of the year" to Q1-Q2 2027, even as Joe insists PJM is moving at "unprecedented" speed. Management's own words are the tell: "While I can't disclose pricing..." and "we're going to keep that range as it is" on every pricing question, paired with a flat refusal to update the interconnection queue figure. My view changes if next quarter's call restores a hard cash flow number and reconfirms the Q1-Q2 2027 co-location timeline without further slippage; if either goes missing again, this becomes a disclosure-quality story, not just a regulatory-timing one.