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Call sheet · Q4'25

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 5, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
8/12
Disclosure score
2 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is Eliquis transforming from mature cash cow to growth driver through aggressive pricing that Wall Street hasn't fully appreciated. While everyone focuses on pipeline delays like ADEPT-2's Q4 miss, BMY is making a calculated bet that a 40% price cut can reignite 10-15% growth in their largest brand by eliminating accumulated rebate penalties. The binding constraint is pipeline execution timing, with six critical readouts crammed into H2 2026 creating binary risk concentration. Management's most revealing comment: 'The 40% WAC reduction eliminates inflationary penalties of statutory rebates that have been accumulating over many years' - this isn't just IRA compliance, it's strategic repositioning. My view changes if CoBinfy TRx data shows actual plateau rather than just reduced disclosure, or if any of the six H2 readouts get pushed into 2027.

The 30-second version

  • SLEEPER: Eliquis becomes a growth driver again after a 40% price cut
  • Growth portfolio momentum masks pipeline execution risk
  • CoBinfy's community penetration stalling despite 'surpassing all analogs' narrative

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Total Revenue$12.2B (flat YoY)$12.5B (flat YoY)Steady amid portfolio churn
Growth Portfolio Revenue$6.4B (+17% YoY)$7.4B (+15% YoY)200bp deceleration but still robust
Gross Margin~73%71.9% (-210bp)Sharp compression from mix shift
Operating Expenses$4.2B (-$100M YoY)$16.3B (guidance, down YoY)Cost discipline maintained
Eliquis Revenue$3.7B (+23% YoY)$3.5B (+6% YoY)Growth deceleration before reacceleration
Opdivo Revenue$2.5B (+6% YoY)$2.7B (+7% YoY)Modest acceleration
Reblozyl Revenue$615M (strong growth)Over $2B annualized (+21% Q4)Crossed $2B threshold
Breyanzi Revenue$359M (+58% YoY)Over $1B annualized (+47% Q4)Crossed $1B threshold
Camzyos Revenue$296M (+88% YoY)$353M (+57% Q4)Growth moderating but strong
CoBinfy Revenue$43M Q3$51M Q4Sequential growth but decelerating

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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