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Call sheet · Q1'26

Boeing (BA)

Q1'26 earnings call · held April 22, 2026 · compared with the Q4'25 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 3 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
Defense quietly turning profitable at 3.1% margins while everyone obsesses over 737 production - this is the sleeper story as conflict drives weapons demand. The obvious headline is 737 stability at 42/month, but the binding constraint is supply chain harmony for the 47→52 ramp without inventory buffer. Kelly's most revealing quote: 'Spirit has done fine... we do still need to see some improvements' - diplomatic language for ongoing integration challenges. 777X disclosure of 30 aircraft needing structural rework over 'several years' is a massive scope that was downplayed. My view changes if Spirit integration metrics deteriorate or if 787 seat certifications aren't resolved by Q3, threatening the production ramp to 10/month.

The 30-second version

  • SLEEPER STORY: Defense margins quietly turning while everyone obsesses over MAX production
  • 737 production stable at 42/month but the real test is 47→52 ramp without inventory buffer
  • 777X change incorporation team revealed: 30 built aircraft need structural rework over 'several years'

What changed this quarter

MetricQ4'25Q1'26Change
Revenue$23.9B (+57% YoY)$22.2B (+14% YoY)Sequential decline but clean comp vs strike-impacted Q1 2025
Core EPS$9.92 (incl $11.83 DAS gain)$-0.20Back to losses but improved from prior year core loss
Free Cash Flow$375M positive$-1.5B usageExpected seasonal pattern but better than guidance
BCA Revenue$11.4B$9.2BSpirit dilution offset by delivery volume growth
BCA Operating Margin-5.6%-6.1%Slight deterioration despite higher volumes
BDS Revenue$7.4B$7.6B (+21% YoY)Strong growth driven by tanker, weapons, classified
BDS Operating Margin-6.8%3.1%+980 bps swing to positive territory
BGS Revenue$5.2B$5.4B (+6% reported, +13% ex-DAS)Solid growth momentum continuing
BGS Operating Margin18.6% (adj for DAS)18.1%Slight decline on mix but both segments double-digit
737 Deliveries117 aircraft114 aircraftFinal shadow factory delivery + wiring rework delay

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made5 narrative shifts flagged7 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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