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Call sheet · Q4'25

AbbVie (ABBV)

Q4'25 earnings call · held February 4, 2026 · compared with the Q3'25 call · management-credibility review
11/12
Disclosure score
3 medium, 4 low flags
Financial quality
Bottom line
The sleeper story is VYALEV's blockbuster trajectory - hitting $1B in 2026 vs prior 'peak' guidance, with management now talking about a $5B+ Parkinson's franchise nobody's modeling. The SKYRIZI/RINVOQ headline is impressive ($31B+ already beating 2027 targets) but masks a quiet shift to a net pricing world with 'low single-digit headwinds continuing multi-year.' The binding constraint isn't demand - it's pricing power sustainability in an increasingly commoditized biologic market. Robert's most revealing quote: 'We have plenty of capacity to invest in both internal and external innovation to drive very strong long-term growth.' Translation: they're spending their way out of pricing pressure. My view changes if VYALEV's Q1 sequential growth decelerates below 20% or if IBD capture rates show material TREMFYA impact.

The 30-second version

  • The sleeper story: VYALEV's blockbuster trajectory exposes a $5+ billion Parkinson's franchise nobody's pricing in
  • SKYRIZI/RINVOQ momentum masks a quiet pricing reality check
  • The Trump deal's 'future pricing mandate exemption' is more significant than the tariff headlines

What changed this quarter

MetricQ3'25Q4'25Change
Total Net Revenues$15.8B (+8.4% YoY)$16.6B (+10% YoY)+150 bps acceleration
Adjusted EPS$1.86$2.71+$0.85 Q/Q
SKYRIZI Global Sales$4.7B (+46% YoY)$5.0B (+31.9% YoY)1,420 bps deceleration but still robust
RINVOQ Global Sales$2.2B (+34.1% YoY)$2.4B (+28.6% YoY)550 bps deceleration
Combined SKYRIZI/RINVOQ$6.9B$7.4B+$500M sequential
VYALEV Sequential Growth$138M (+40% Q/Q)$183M (+33% Q/Q)Sustained 30%+ sequential momentum
HUMIRA Global Sales$993M (-55.7% YoY)$1.2B (-26.1% YoY)2,960 bps erosion improvement
Neuroscience Total Revenue$2.8B (+19.6% YoY)$2.9B (+17.3% YoY)230 bps deceleration but double-digit
Operating Cash Flow$13B (9 months)Not disclosed for Q4Disclosure gap
Free Cash Flow GuidanceNot provided$18.5B for 2026New disclosure

Accountability tracked

8 new promises made4 narrative shifts flagged6 prior promises scored
Inside the full report
The complete write-up covers the full promise ledger with kept/missed calls, disclosure-quality scoring, the metrics-vanished check, verification items, and the questions to ask next quarter.
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Scores, kept-promise rates, and flags on this site reflect the author's opinion, applying a stated methodology to statements management made on public earnings calls. Informational and educational purposes only - not investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Sources believed reliable but not guaranteed; the author may hold positions in the securities discussed.

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